Half the League Wants Him! Is Lauri Markkanen Worth 5 First-Round Picks?

The NBA free agency period has been open for several days, and while this year was not expected to be a marquee year for free agents, the spotlight has now shifted to the trade market. With big names like LeBron James, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, and OG Anunoby already locked into new contracts, the best remaining free agent is DeMar DeRozan. Beyond that, the available talent is mostly mid-tier. Therefore, teams looking to make significant improvements or create major headlines must turn to trades. One name that stands out in this context is Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz—a player so versatile and valuable that nearly half the league is reportedly interested in acquiring him.

Lauri Markkanen’s Transformation

After being traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz, Markkanen has undergone a remarkable transformation. Over the past two seasons, his statistics have been impressive:

• 2022-23 Season: Averaged 25.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game, with shooting splits of 49.9% from the field, 39.1% from three, and 87.5% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage was an outstanding 64.1%.
• 2023-24 Season: Averaged 23.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game, with shooting splits of 48.0% from the field, 39.9% from three, and 89.9% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage remained high at 63.1%.

Markkanen has the height of a modern center but the shooting prowess of a guard. His mobility is excellent for someone his size, and his efficiency is remarkable. He excels both with and without the ball and is a tenacious rebounder. One notable statistic is that last season, Markkanen averaged 3.2 made three-pointers and 2.2 offensive rebounds per game, making him the only player in history to achieve these numbers in a single season.

Perfect Fit for Contending Teams

Markkanen is an ideal second or third option for a championship-contending team. However, he falls short of being a primary franchise player due to his limitations in ball-handling, playmaking, and usage rate. Despite this, he remains highly valuable. The Jazz have repeatedly stated that they do not intend to trade Markkanen, but with him turning 27, he doesn’t quite fit the timeline for a rebuilding core. His presence makes it difficult for the Jazz to fully commit to a rebuild, as he ensures the team remains competitive.

Moreover, Markkanen is entering the final year of his contract. If he decides to leave, the Jazz risk getting nothing in return. Unless an extension is agreed upon, it is highly likely that Markkanen will be traded. The Jazz have held out for a satisfactory offer, understanding Markkanen’s high value.

High Asking Price

During the playoffs, reports surfaced that the Jazz would only consider trading Markkanen for an “unrealistic” offer, such as four to five first-round picks plus a star-level player. This aligns with earlier reports suggesting the Jazz wanted around five first-round picks for Markkanen, similar to the trade packages for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.

Despite the steep asking price, many teams remain interested. This offseason, the Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New Orleans Pelicans have all been linked to Markkanen. Recent reports indicate that the Kings, Warriors, and Spurs have already made offers for Markkanen. However, the Jazz are holding firm, stating that only a Bridges-level offer (five first-round picks plus a pick swap) would entice them to part ways with Markkanen.

Comparing to Mikal Bridges

In terms of ability, Markkanen had a stronger season than Mikal Bridges last year. However, Bridges' high trade value was partly due to his fit with the New York Knicks, where he joined three former college teammates. Unlike Bridges, who has two years remaining on his contract, Markkanen only has one year left. Teams might be hesitant to trade significant assets for him when they can potentially sign him as a free agent next offseason. Unless the interested team can secure a pre-agreed extension with Markkanen, the likelihood of meeting the Jazz’s asking price diminishes. Such an extension would likely be a maximum contract.

Potential Suitors

Despite the high asking price, Markkanen remains an extremely attractive target for many teams, especially contenders. One team that stands out as a potential landing spot is the San Antonio Spurs. Despite winning only 22 games last season, the Spurs have a budding superstar in Victor Wembanyama, who has already shown flashes of top-tier potential. If Wembanyama continues to develop into a top-15 or even top-10 player next season, the Spurs will shift their focus from rebuilding to contending. Utilizing Wembanyama's contract window effectively will be crucial, and acquiring Markkanen would significantly bolster their chances.

The Spurs have the necessary assets and a history of successfully integrating international players. A Markkanen-Wembanyama pairing would be formidable, transforming the Spurs into a playoff contender in the brutal Western Conference. Additionally, the Spurs' international appeal could be a significant draw for Markkanen.

The Jazz’s Perspective

For the Jazz, trading Markkanen, especially at the price they are demanding, would be a massive win. When they initially traded Donovan Mitchell, the primary focus was on acquiring three first-round picks, two pick swaps, and a rookie (the 14th overall pick in the 2022 draft), not on Markkanen. Now, the Jazz's asking price for Markkanen alone has reached five first-round picks. If they manage to trade him at this valuation, it would mean effectively selling Mitchell for a total package of nine first-round picks and three pick swaps—a staggering return.

Market Dynamics and Future Moves

While the idea of trading for Markkanen is enticing for many teams, the reality is complex. The high asking price, coupled with Markkanen’s contract situation, makes it unlikely that the Jazz will receive the five first-round picks they desire. However, teams desperate for a versatile forward who can stretch the floor, rebound, and play multiple positions might be willing to negotiate. If a team can secure a long-term extension with Markkanen, the trade becomes more plausible.

The next few months will be critical in determining Markkanen’s future. As teams assess their rosters and needs, the trade market will likely heat up. Markkanen’s value remains high, and the Jazz are in a strong position to negotiate. Whether they get their desired return or not, the interest in Markkanen underscores his status as one of the most coveted players in the league.

Conclusion

Lauri Markkanen’s blend of size, shooting, and versatility makes him a unique asset in today’s NBA. While the asking price is steep, his ability to fit into various team structures and contribute at a high level ensures continued interest from multiple franchises. The Jazz’s strategy of holding out for the best possible offer reflects their understanding of Markkanen’s value. As the trade market develops, it will be fascinating to see if any team meets the Jazz’s demands or if they opt to pursue Markkanen in free agency. One thing is certain: Markkanen’s next move will be a significant storyline in the NBA.