$421 Million for One Year! The Suns Go All In – Will They Disband If They Don’t Win Next Season?

The Phoenix Suns have made headlines again. According to Shams Charania, free agent Josh Okogie has agreed to a two-year, $16 million extension with the Suns. This contract includes $8 million guaranteed for the first year, while the second year is non-guaranteed. Last season, Okogie played 60 games for the Suns, starting in 11 of them, and averaged 4.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.1 assists in 16.0 minutes per game. He shot 41.7% from the field and 30.9% from three-point range. In the playoffs, his playing time decreased to 7.3 minutes per game, with averages of 3.5 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 0.5 assists, and a three-point shooting percentage of 33.3%.

Okogie lacks the ability to create his own shot and is primarily seen as a 3-and-D player, but his career three-point shooting percentage of 29.3% suggests he struggles from beyond the arc. His defensive prowess, however, is notable due to his 6'4" height and 7'0" wingspan, making him effective in one-on-one situations against guards. However, his size can be a disadvantage against taller opponents. Given his overall performance and age of 25, the $8 million annual salary might seem a bit high. Comparatively, someone like Austin Rivers at the same salary seems like a better value.

The financial implications for the Suns are significant. With their total salary already surpassing the second luxury tax threshold, the $8 million for Okogie comes with a $33 million luxury tax hit, making the actual cost of signing him $41 million for one year. This bold move sets a new record, making the Suns the first team in NBA history to have combined salary and luxury tax exceed $400 million in a single season. According to salary expert Bobby Marks, the Suns’ total salary for the new season stands at $223 million, with an additional $198 million in luxury tax, bringing their total expenditure to $421 million.

A $421 million expenditure in one year is staggering. Since acquiring Bradley Beal last season, the Suns have been entangled in a significant salary cap dilemma. The combined salaries of Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant for the upcoming season total $151 million, which is more than some teams’ entire season payroll. Additionally, Jusuf Nurkić and Grayson Allen’s salaries are $18.13 million and $15.63 million, respectively. During the offseason, the Suns also signed Royce O’Neale to a fully guaranteed four-year, $44 million contract, and Okogie’s $8 million contract further strains their financial flexibility.

Without accounting for players like Mason Plumlee on minimum deals, the combined salaries of the seven mentioned players already exceed $200 million, comparable to the reigning champions, the Boston Celtics. However, while the Celtics' expenditure led to a championship, the Suns’ results last season were underwhelming. Despite having three of the league’s top scorers and relatively good health, the Suns only won 49 regular-season games, finishing fifth in the Western Conference. Their net rating of +3.1 points per 100 possessions was eighth in the league, with offensive and defensive ratings ranking 10th and 13th, respectively, neither of which were elite.

The Suns’ playoff performance was even more disappointing. Facing the Timberwolves, a team they swept 3-0 in the regular season, the Suns were swept 0-4 in the first round of the playoffs. Apart from a close Game 4, they lost the other three games by 25, 12, and 17 points, respectively, showing no resistance.

Despite their spending, the Suns’ problems persist:

1. Durant, now 35, has maintained peak form for the past two years, but there are signs of decline. In the last 18 regular-season games, he only scored 30+ points twice, with 30 and 32 points.
2. The addition of Mason Plumlee does not solve their defensive issues, especially against strong Western Conference frontcourts like the Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Mavericks.
3. The Suns still lack a true point guard. Despite the free agency period, they have not addressed this need, potentially forcing Booker to play point guard again next season.

Additionally, the Suns will have to adjust to a new head coach, Mike Budenholzer, and deal with the wear and tear from Durant and Booker’s participation in the Olympics, which could affect their stamina and injury risks.

This aggressive spending spree is a bold strategy by the Suns’ new owner, who seems willing to spend lavishly and make decisive moves. However, whether these moves will yield the desired results remains uncertain. Given the team's performance last season and the current competitive landscape in the Western Conference, even reaching the Western Conference Finals might be challenging. If the Suns fail to produce significant results next season, it is doubtful that the owner will continue to spend at such a high level.

The Suns' situation is reminiscent of a high-stakes gamble, where massive investments are made with the expectation of immediate returns. The pressure to win now is immense, and anything short of a championship could lead to significant changes, including the potential disbanding of the team. The upcoming season will be a critical one for the Suns, determining whether their bold financial moves will pay off or if they will have to rethink their strategy moving forward.