Zero Signings So Far! Can the Lakers Make the Playoffs Next Year with This Roster?

LeBron James has officially re-signed with the Los Angeles Lakers for two years, $104 million. Following the drafting of Bronny James, LeBron's decision to stay was expected, with the main question being the salary. Previously, it was reported that if the Lakers could acquire players like Klay Thompson, Jonas Valančiūnas, or DeMar DeRozan in free agency, LeBron was willing to take a $16 million pay cut to help the Lakers sign players with the full mid-level exception. However, this did not come to fruition.

LeBron's Contract Details

The specifics of LeBron’s contract are two years at $49.98 million and $52.48 million (with a player option) and include a no-trade clause. LeBron thus becomes the second active player with a no-trade clause in his contract, the other being Bradley Beal. Additionally, LeBron is the first player in NBA history to have multiple contracts with no-trade clauses, having had one during his time with the Cavaliers. Historically, only ten players have managed to secure a no-trade clause in their contracts: John Stockton, David Robinson, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Bradley Beal.

LeBron's Performance and Value

LeBron’s max contract is undoubtedly deserved. At 39 years old, in his 21st season, LeBron still averaged 25.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game, with shooting splits of 54.0%/41.0%/75.0% and a true shooting percentage of 63.0%. He also led his team to the playoffs. Given these numbers, his All-Star status, All-NBA selections, mid-season MVP accolades, and immense box office draw, the max contract is a no-brainer.

Financial Constraints and Implications

However, with LeBron's max contract, the Lakers’ salary for next season exceeds the second luxury tax apron by $5.15 million. This not only means hefty luxury tax penalties but also imposes several roster-building restrictions:

1. They cannot execute trades involving multiple players for one player.
2. They lose the ability to use the mini mid-level exception and can only sign players to minimum contracts.
3. Any incoming player’s salary in a trade must not exceed the outgoing player’s salary.

ESPN reported that the Lakers are still discussing a potential $10 million pay cut with LeBron to help them get under the second luxury tax apron. But considering the Lakers' inaction in free agency so far, persuading LeBron to take a pay cut seems unlikely.

The Lakers’ Offseason Moves and Challenges

The Lakers’ offseason has been lackluster, to say the least. They started by firing head coach Darvin Ham, which was widely expected. However, they then hired J.J. Redick as the new head coach, a retired player with no prior coaching experience—a complete rookie whose coaching capabilities remain untested. This decision likely deterred many experienced coaches from joining the assistant coaching staff. Despite this, the Lakers managed to secure Nate McMillan and Scott Brooks as lead assistants, a rare positive in an otherwise dismal offseason.

During the draft, the Lakers selected Jett Knicknect at the 17th pick, a player initially projected to go in the top ten. Despite being an older rookie, Knicknect has decent shooting ability and seems like a good value pick. At the 55th pick, the Lakers selected Bronny James. This move was unsurprising, as it not only secured LeBron’s presence but also guaranteed ticket sales. Using a 55th pick to keep LeBron on the team and boost box office revenue is undoubtedly a worthwhile gamble.

In free agency, the Lakers have only made one move apart from re-signing LeBron to a max contract: a four-year, $32 million deal to re-sign Max Christie. Christie, who averaged 4.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 0.9 assists in 14.1 minutes per game last season with a true shooting percentage of 54.4%, did not play in the playoffs. At 21 years old, Christie is still young, but this contract seems a bit bold—would other teams really offer him this amount? It's doubtful. It appears the Lakers see great potential in Christie, but if this contract turns out to be an overpay like Talen Horton-Tucker's, it wouldn't be surprising.

Shortly after LeBron re-signed, the Lakers received more bad news: Taurean Prince signed with the Milwaukee Bucks, leaving the Lakers. Prince played 78 games for the Lakers last season, starting 49, and averaged 8.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists with a 39.6% three-point shooting percentage. Losing Prince is unfortunate, but considering Jarred Vanderbilt’s return to health next season, Prince’s departure is understandable.

The Current Roster

With no further moves, the Lakers' main roster for next season consists of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Vanderbilt, Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish, Knicknect, and Bronny James. Objectively speaking, this roster seems unlikely to contend for a championship, and even making the playoffs could be challenging given the increasingly competitive Western Conference landscape.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are on the rise with young talent, the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets are in their prime, and the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns remain formidable. Additionally, the Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, and San Antonio Spurs will undoubtedly make strong playoff pushes next season.

Future Prospects and Possible Moves

Despite the grim outlook, the offseason is far from over, and the Lakers will likely make more moves. They could potentially leverage Russell and their 2031 first-round pick in trades. As long as LeBron and Davis are on the team, the Lakers will remain a focal point, especially with the historic father-son duo of LeBron and Bronny on the same team. This unique storyline will undoubtedly draw significant attention and viewership.

However, the championship aspirations seem distant. The current roster, as constructed, faces significant hurdles in a fiercely competitive conference. The Lakers’ front office must be proactive in making strategic moves to enhance the team’s chances. Whether through trades or additional signings, the Lakers need to bolster their lineup to realistically aim for the playoffs and beyond.

The journey ahead for the Lakers is challenging, but the team’s resilience and ability to make impactful decisions will determine their success in the upcoming season. The Lakers' management and coaching staff must navigate these complexities to build a cohesive and competitive team, ensuring that LeBron's remaining years are spent contending for titles rather than merely making playoff appearances.