Three-Point Sniper with Defensive Flaws! Can the Warriors Make the Playoffs After Signing Buddy Hield?

The NBA free agency period is always full of surprises, and the Golden State Warriors made headlines once again by acquiring Buddy Hield from the Philadelphia 76ers in a sign-and-trade deal. The Warriors gave up a 2031 second-round pick (from the Dallas Mavericks) in exchange for Hield, according to renowned journalist Shams Charania. ESPN further reported that Hield signed a four-year contract with the Warriors, with the first two years fully guaranteed for a total of $18 million, the third year partially guaranteed for $3 million, and the fourth year non-guaranteed but with a player option.

The New Splash Brother?

Upon hearing the news, many fans immediately thought of the potential for a new "Splash Brothers" duo. Indeed, Hield has shown a remarkable ability to shoot from beyond the arc. Over the past five seasons, Hield has made a league-high 1,322 three-pointers, just ahead of Stephen Curry's 1,264. Of course, it's worth noting that Curry played only five games in the 2019-20 season due to injury.

Hield's career three-point shooting is nothing short of impressive. He has made 1,921 three-pointers, ranking 10th among active players and 22nd in NBA history. With just under 70 more threes, he could climb to 17th on the all-time list, surpassing Jason Kidd's 1,988 threes. From the 2018-19 to the 2022-23 seasons, Hield's single-season three-point totals were consistently among the league's best: 278, 271, 282, 262, and 288, respectively. His career three-point shooting percentage stands at 40%, with three seasons over 42%. This kind of prolific and efficient shooting evokes comparisons to Curry and Klay Thompson.

Hield's Time with the 76ers

Last season, Hield was traded from the Indiana Pacers to the Philadelphia 76ers. His performance with both teams was fairly consistent:

• With the Pacers: 52 games, 28 starts, 25.7 minutes per game, averaging 12.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, with a 38.4% three-point shooting rate and a 58.6% true shooting percentage.
• With the 76ers: 32 games, 14 starts, 25.8 minutes per game, averaging 12.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, with a 38.9% three-point shooting rate and a 56.6% true shooting percentage.

The Pros and Cons of Buddy Hield

Aside from his outstanding three-point shooting, one of Hield's significant advantages is his durability. Over his eight-year career, he has missed only six games. Last season, due to being traded, he played in an impressive 84 regular-season games. However, Hield's game is not without its drawbacks.

Despite his three-point prowess, Hield lacks other offensive skills. Players who rely heavily on three-pointers often face inconsistencies; when their shooting is off, their overall impact diminishes. Moreover, Hield's defense is notoriously weak. His defensive deficiencies were evident during his time with the Sacramento Kings, where he showed poor defensive instincts and awareness. Statistically, Hield has never posted a positive Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) in any season of his career. This defensive liability often results in a net negative impact when he's on the floor. Throughout his career, teams have been outscored by 2.5 points per 100 possessions with Hield on the court, compared to outscoring opponents by 1.4 points per 100 possessions when he's off the court.

Age and Experience

Hield is not a young player. Although he has only been in the NBA for eight years, he entered the league at 23. He will turn 32 in five months, suggesting that his best years may be behind him. Additionally, Hield has limited playoff experience. Last season was his first appearance in the playoffs, and his performance was underwhelming. In the first three games, he played a total of 30 minutes, shot 1-of-7 from the field, 0-of-4 from three, and scored a combined three points and one rebound. He was benched in Games 4 and 5 by Coach Nick Nurse, only to redeem himself slightly in Game 6 with a 20-point effort, hitting 6-of-9 three-pointers.

The Warriors' Offseason Moves

Given Hield's strengths and weaknesses, his addition to the Warriors raises questions about their playoff prospects. Comparing the Warriors' roster moves this offseason to last season, they've certainly made changes:

• Departures: Klay Thompson, Chris Paul.
• Retentions: Kevon Looney.
• Additions: Melton (1 year, $12.8 million), Kyle Anderson (3 years, $27 million), and Buddy Hield (4 years, $21 million guaranteed).

The Warriors' roster for next season includes Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis (TJD), Kevon Looney, Melton, and Kyle Anderson. This lineup suggests a younger and more cost-effective team. The Warriors aim to avoid paying luxury tax, and their roster adjustments reflect that goal.

Last season, the Warriors finished 46-36, placing 10th in the Western Conference and exiting in the second round of the play-in tournament. The Western Conference remains highly competitive, with teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, and Sacramento Kings all vying for playoff spots.

Can the Warriors Make the Playoffs?

The key question remains: Can the Warriors make the playoffs with this roster? Much of their success will hinge on Stephen Curry's performance and health. Curry has proven time and again that he can carry a team, but he will need help. Hield's three-point shooting will be valuable, but his defensive liabilities could be a significant drawback.

The Warriors' backcourt is still crowded, and it's uncertain whether Hield will start or come off the bench. If he can provide 25 minutes per game and maintain his three-point shooting efficiency, he will be a valuable asset. However, his defensive issues could limit his playing time, especially in critical moments of games.

Final Thoughts

The Warriors have made significant changes this offseason, and while their roster looks younger and more financially sustainable, their path to the playoffs is far from guaranteed. Hield's addition brings much-needed three-point shooting, but his defensive flaws could pose challenges. The Warriors' success will largely depend on Curry's performance and the development of their younger players. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see if this new-look Warriors team can defy the odds and secure a playoff spot in the highly competitive Western Conference.