$87 Million Over 3 Years! Weakest Link Fixed! Can the Thunder Win the Championship Next Season?

The NBA free agency period has been open for several days, and most major free agents like Paul George, James Harden, and OG Anunoby have already found new teams. Among all the signings, one deal stands out, not for its star power, but for how it directly addresses the biggest weakness of the top team in the Western Conference. This is the signing of Isaiah Hartenstein by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Hartenstein might not be among the top ten free agents this summer, but he is certainly a second-tier choice at the center position. The only player arguably better was Nic Claxton, who re-signed with the Brooklyn Nets for four years and $100 million before free agency began. Consequently, teams in need of a big man quickly turned their attention to Hartenstein. The New York Knicks, keen not to lose him, offered a four-year, $72.5 million contract. Given their limited Bird rights, this was the maximum they could offer, and they never withdrew the offer, showing their sincerity.

Hartenstein was initially interested in staying in New York, but when the Thunder offered a three-year, $87 million contract, the decision became clear.

Hartenstein's Background

Last season, due to injuries to Mitchell Robinson, Hartenstein got more opportunities and played in 75 regular-season games, starting in 49 of them. He averaged 7.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks in 25.3 minutes per game, with a field goal percentage of 64.4%. By comparison, in the 2022-23 season with the Knicks, Hartenstein played all 82 games, starting only 8, and averaged 5.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.2 assists in 19.8 minutes per game, with a field goal percentage of 53.5%.

Hartenstein's playoff performance was even more impressive. He started all 13 of the Knicks' playoff games, averaging 8.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in 29.8 minutes per game, with a field goal percentage of 59.2%. In the series against the Indiana Pacers, Hartenstein had several standout performances, such as Game 2, where he recorded 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists, nearly a triple-double. In Game 5, despite scoring only 7 points, he grabbed 17 rebounds, including 12 offensive boards.

Standing at 7'0" with a 7'2.5" wingspan, Hartenstein is a modern blue-collar center. He lacks significant offensive skills, relying primarily on putbacks and second-chance points, but excels defensively and is a strong rebounder:

• Regular season rebound rate: 16.5% (19th in the league)
• Regular season offensive rebound rate: 12.9% (6th in the league)
• Playoff rebound rate: 14.0% (14th in the league)
• Playoff offensive rebound rate: 12.7% (4th in the league)

Addressing Thunder's Weakness

Rebounding has been the Thunder's biggest weakness. Last season, they ranked 27th in the league in average rebounds per game and 29th in offensive rebounds per game. In the playoffs, they ranked 10th and 12th respectively among the 16 teams. This was particularly evident in the series against the Dallas Mavericks, where the Thunder were outrebounded by an average of 4.7 rebounds per game and had 16 fewer offensive rebounds over six games. The series was closely contested, and the Thunder's lack of rebounding and experience were critical factors in their loss.

Chet Holmgren, standing at 7'1", had a great rookie year, showcasing excellent shot-blocking and fearlessness in physical contests. However, he is still a rookie with a slender build and struggles with physicality. Hartenstein's arrival addresses the Thunder's lack of interior size and physicality. He is a scrappy player and a capable rim protector, and his presence will not create compatibility issues with Holmgren. Next season, Holmgren can shift to the power forward position, allowing him to roam defensively and potentially improve on both ends of the floor.

Concerns and Salary Structure

There are concerns about Hartenstein's consistency, given that he has only had one breakout year. However, at 26 years old, he is in his prime and fits well with the Thunder's needs. Even if his performance dips slightly, he should remain a valuable player. The Thunder's contract structure with Hartenstein is also noteworthy. The deal starts at $30 million in the first year and decreases annually, with the final year being non-guaranteed. This aligns with the Thunder's salary cap situation. Next season, they can still benefit from Holmgren and Jalen Williams' rookie contracts, and by the time they need to extend those players, Hartenstein will be in the final year of his deal.

This contract is a perfect example of the Thunder's smart free agency maneuvering. Additionally, before free agency began, they traded Josh Giddey to the Chicago Bulls for Alex Caruso, a well-known perimeter defender who shot 40.8% from three last season. They also extended two young players: Aaron Wiggins for five years and $47 million, and Isaiah Joe for four years and $48 million. Both players performed well last season, especially from beyond the arc, with three-point shooting percentages of 49.2% and 41.6%, respectively. Considering the new TV deal, these contracts are very reasonable. In four or five years, a $10 million annual salary for players of their caliber will be a bargain.

Thunder's Lineup and Championship Prospects

Next season, the Thunder can field a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Caruso, and Hartenstein, with a bench featuring Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Wiggins, Joe, and Jaylin Williams. Hartenstein and Dort can be adjusted based on the opponent's lineup. Last season, the Thunder were already the top team in the Western Conference, and this roster is more balanced and reasonable. The young players have also gained playoff experience, which should help them improve further.

The Thunder's moves this offseason have not only addressed their biggest weakness but also positioned them well for a championship run. With a more balanced lineup and young players who are only getting better, the Thunder have a legitimate shot at winning the title next season. All eyes will be on Oklahoma City to see if these strategic moves pay off.