Sharp Decline: What Happened to Jamal Murray After a $208M Extension?

The Denver Nuggets find themselves in an intriguing situation this season. Despite Nikola Jokic playing at an MVP level yet again, the team suffered a surprising 123-120 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Jokic, who recently returned from injury, delivered a masterclass: 39 minutes, 33 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists on an efficient 13-of-22 shooting, including 2-for-2 from three-point range. This marked Jokic's fifth consecutive triple-double and his seventh of the season, further solidifying his place atop the latest MVP rankings.

However, the glaring issue for the Nuggets wasn’t Jokic—it was their second option, Jamal Murray, whose performance continues to raise red flags.

A Troubling Night Against Dallas

Murray played 39 minutes in the loss but struggled to make an impact offensively. He shot 4-of-16 from the field, finishing with just 14 points and three turnovers. To his credit, he dished out 11 assists, surpassing Jokic’s 10, and hit a crucial three-pointer with 10 seconds remaining to keep the Nuggets alive.

But then came a critical misstep. With 4.2 seconds left, Denver trailing by two, and no timeouts remaining, Murray was tasked with intentionally missing his second free throw to give the Nuggets a chance at an offensive rebound. Instead, he accidentally made the shot, a mishap that effectively sealed the loss.

More concerning than the missed strategic opportunity was Murray’s defense in the closing moments. Denver had turned a 20-point deficit into a five-point lead with just under three minutes remaining, only to collapse during a 9-0 Mavericks run. During this stretch, PJ Washington scored seven points—all against Murray’s defense—swinging the momentum decisively in Dallas’s favor.

Murray’s Worrying Trends

This game was emblematic of a larger issue: Murray’s sharp decline this season. Through 11 games, Murray is averaging 17.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in 36.5 minutes per game, with shooting splits of 39.7% from the field, 33.8% from three, and 85.0% from the line, resulting in a true shooting percentage of 51.4%.

These numbers are far below what fans and analysts have come to expect. By comparison:

• 2022-23 Regular Season: 21.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 48.1% FG, 42.5% 3PT, 85.3% FT, 58.6% TS.
• 2023 Playoffs: 26.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 47.3% FG, 39.6% 3PT, 92.6% FT, 58.6% TS.

The drop-off is stark, especially for a player widely regarded as one of the NBA’s top playoff performers.

A Tale of Two Murrays

At his peak, Murray is a dynamic offensive force and the ideal complement to Jokic’s playmaking brilliance. In the 2023 playoffs, he delivered unforgettable performances, including back-to-back 37-point games in the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers and a Finals series against Miami in which he averaged 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 10 assists. His consistent excellence was pivotal in Denver’s championship run, cementing his status as an elite second option.

But the 2023-24 version of Murray has been unrecognizable. The decline isn’t limited to his scoring; his shot selection, defensive intensity, and decision-making have all taken a step back.

Why the Sudden Decline?

Several factors may contribute to Murray’s struggles this season:

1. Fatigue and Recovery
   Murray missed the entire 2021-22 season due to an ACL tear and spent much of the following year rediscovering his rhythm. The grueling playoff run and subsequent offseason commitments, including a disappointing showing at the Olympics with Team Canada, may have left him physically and mentally drained.

2. Inconsistency in Role
   As Denver’s primary scorer behind Jokic, Murray has faced increased defensive attention. Without another consistent third option to alleviate pressure, teams have focused on disrupting his rhythm, and Murray has struggled to adjust.

3. Shooting Slump
   Murray’s shooting percentages, particularly from three-point range, are well below his career norms. Whether this is due to mechanics, confidence, or lingering fatigue is unclear, but his inability to consistently hit open looks has limited Denver’s offensive versatility.

4. Mental Hurdles
   Nuggets insiders have reported that Murray is aware of his slump and has been candid about his struggles. While his willingness to address the issue publicly is commendable, the added pressure to perform could exacerbate the situation.

A Look at the Contract

Denver’s decision to reward Murray with a four-year, $208 million maximum extension was a testament to his importance to the team. As a proven playoff performer and a loyal contributor during the franchise’s rise, Murray earned the respect and trust of the Nuggets organization.

However, with his current form, many fans and analysts are questioning whether Murray can justify the hefty price tag. The Nuggets have championship aspirations, and Jokic is playing at an all-time level. For Denver to maximize their window of contention, Murray must rediscover the consistency and explosiveness that made him such a formidable partner to Jokic.

Glimpses of Hope

Despite his struggles, there are reasons for optimism. Murray’s passing has been a bright spot; his 6.0 assists per game are a career high, and he continues to show flashes of playmaking brilliance. Additionally, his ability to step up in big moments—as seen in his clutch three-pointer against Dallas—remains intact.

More importantly, Murray has shown resilience throughout his career. He bounced back from a devastating injury to help lead Denver to a championship, proving he has the mental toughness to overcome adversity.

Moving Forward

Murray’s decline may be a temporary setback rather than a long-term trend. As he works to regain his confidence and consistency, the Nuggets must find ways to support him—whether through load management, adjustments in offensive schemes, or simply patience.

Denver’s success hinges on more than just Jokic’s brilliance. If Murray can regain even a fraction of his playoff form, the Nuggets will remain a force in the Western Conference. For now, fans can only hope that Murray’s slump is just that—a slump—and not a sign of deeper issues that could jeopardize Denver’s title defense.