No Going Back: What Is James Harden's Current Level?

When the LA Clippers confirmed Kawhi Leonard would miss the start of the season, head coach Tyronn Lue made it clear he expected James Harden to channel his prime Houston Rockets days. Harden himself expressed supreme confidence, claiming he was in the best shape of the past six or seven years and boldly stating: "I’m one of the players the NBA has to adapt to." These statements, combined with the Clippers' challenging circumstances, raised fans’ hopes of seeing "Houston Harden" resurface. Now, nearly a fifth of the season has passed—how has Harden performed so far?

Through 15 games, Harden has been ever-present for the Clippers, averaging 34.9 minutes per game. His stat line shows 20.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game, with shooting splits of 37.2% from the field, 31.1% from three, and 86.0% from the free-throw line. With Leonard sidelined and Paul George no longer on the team, Harden has shouldered a significantly larger offensive load. His usage rate has skyrocketed from 20.2% last season to 28.3%, his highest since leaving the Rockets. Consequently, his shot attempts have increased by 4.5 per game, even though his minutes have remained relatively steady.

However, increased usage and shot volume have not translated to improved efficiency. Harden's current shooting percentages from both the field and beyond the arc are the lowest of his career, and his true shooting percentage has plummeted to 53.2%, compared to 61.2% last season. Offensively, it's evident that Harden cannot return to his peak form. The explosiveness that once enabled him to blow by defenders or create separation for his signature step-back threes has faded. Age and the lingering effects of his hamstring injuries have significantly diminished his burst.

Interestingly, Harden's poor three-point shooting seems anomalous when compared to his historical accuracy. As the second all-time leader in three-pointers made, Harden's struggles this season are puzzling. During the 2022-23 season, he shot 39.1% on 220 open three-point attempts (defined as the closest defender being 4-6 feet away) and 33.8% on 151 contested attempts (closest defender 2-4 feet). This season, however, those numbers have dipped to 33.3% (20-for-60) on open threes and a mere 23.8% (10-for-42) on contested attempts. Given Harden’s track record, it’s reasonable to expect some improvement, especially when Leonard returns to relieve some of the defensive pressure on him.

Harden’s most impactful contributions now lie in his playmaking. In the Clippers’ recent back-to-back games against the Jazz and Warriors, Harden tallied a combined 27 assists with just three turnovers. In the game against Golden State, Harden orchestrated the Clippers' final three field goals, dishing out two pinpoint passes to Norman Powell for open threes and setting up Amir Coffey for a baseline cut in transition.

Beyond his elite playmaking, Harden has been a surprising contributor on defense this season. Once maligned for his lackadaisical defensive efforts, Harden’s defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) currently sits at +1.7, the second-highest mark of his career and second on the team behind Kris Dunn (+2.2). His overall box plus-minus (BPM) is +4.0, the highest on the team, ahead of Powell (+3.2), Dunn (+2.2), and Ivica Zubac (-0.1). These advanced stats align with the eye test: Harden’s intelligence and anticipation on defense have added value to the Clippers.

Perhaps even more impressive is Harden's commitment to availability. Despite battling illness during the recent back-to-back, he logged 34 minutes against Utah and 41 minutes against Golden State. Tyronn Lue praised Harden’s professionalism, emphasizing his determination to play whenever physically able.

As one Clippers beat reporter aptly summarized: "As a scorer, Harden is no longer what he once was, but his underappreciated qualities—his basketball IQ and willingness to compete—are what allow him to still elevate a team. Harden continues to face defensive attention reminiscent of his 2018 MVP days and does everything he can to contribute every game."

It’s true: Harden’s scoring prowess has declined, and fans of his Rockets era have long accepted that "Houston Harden" is not coming back. However, his exceptional court vision, decision-making, and defense make him a valuable asset. At 35 years old, Harden has evolved into a different type of player, one who leverages his intelligence and experience to impact games.

Another factor worth considering is Harden's contract. He is earning $34 million this season—a bargain compared to the league's rising salaries. For context, his salary is lower than that of Immanuel Quickley, whose new contract averages $35 million annually. Would the Clippers fare better with Quickley as their primary guard? Likely not, as their current 8-7 record owes much to Harden’s leadership and contributions.

Ultimately, the Clippers’ fortunes rest heavily on Kawhi Leonard’s health. If Leonard can return and play at an All-NBA level, Harden’s burden will lighten significantly, allowing him to focus on his strengths as a playmaker and secondary scorer.

For those who witnessed Harden’s prime, there is no doubting the unparalleled scoring ability he displayed during his Rockets days. Fans who have followed him through every chapter of his career understand that those days are behind him. Yet, his current performance—while different—is still impressive in its own right. Hopefully, Harden and the Clippers can end the season on a high note.