Is Mike Conley Running Out of Gas at 37?

The Minnesota Timberwolves entered this season with high hopes following their unexpected run to the Western Conference Finals last year—their first trip to the stage in 20 years. Many believed they could take another step forward. However, 16 games into the season, the Timberwolves find themselves at 8-8, sitting 11th in the Western Conference. If the playoffs started today, they wouldn’t even qualify for the Play-In Tournament.

The Timberwolves’ early-season struggles can be attributed to multiple factors, including a significant offseason trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. While Randle has performed reasonably well and DiVincenzo has shown flashes of improvement, the trade hasn’t translated into immediate success on the court.

Another issue weighing on the Timberwolves is the sharp decline of veteran point guard Mike Conley.

Conley’s Key Role Last Season

Last season, the 36-year-old Conley was instrumental in the Timberwolves’ success. As the team’s starting point guard, he averaged:

• 11.4 points
• 2.9 rebounds
• 5.9 assists
• 1.3 turnovers

What stood out most was Conley’s incredible efficiency. He posted career highs in shooting splits—45.7% FG / 44.2% 3PT / 91.1% FT—and his true shooting percentage of 62.7% was far above his career average of 55.6%.

Conley also provided veteran leadership and stability, both on the court and in the locker room. His ability to manage the offense and mentor younger players like Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels was a crucial factor in the Timberwolves’ playoff run.

A Steep Decline This Season

Fast forward to the current season, and Conley’s production has taken a dramatic hit. Through 13 games, he is averaging:

• 7.5 points
• 3.2 rebounds
• 4.8 assists
• 1.7 steals
• 1.2 turnovers

While his turnover rate remains low, Conley’s offensive efficiency has plummeted. His shooting splits—31.9% FG / 33.8% 3PT / 84.2% FT—have resulted in a true shooting percentage of 47.9%, a far cry from last season’s elite numbers.

Conley’s role as a scorer has also diminished significantly. Last season, 62.9% of his attempts were from beyond the arc, but this season that number has risen to 69.1%, reflecting a shift toward a three-point-heavy approach. However, his accuracy from deep has been uncharacteristically poor.

Struggles with Open Looks

Perhaps most concerning is Conley’s performance on wide-open three-pointers (defined as shots where the nearest defender is more than six feet away). This season, Conley has attempted 36 such shots, making only 11 of them for a 30.6% success rate. Last season, he thrived in these situations, shooting 47.7% on wide-open threes (132 of 277).

The Timberwolves’ lack of spacing, exacerbated by Towns’ departure, may be contributing to Conley’s struggles. However, the decline in his shooting touch is also indicative of age-related regression.

Defensive Contributions Remain Solid

On the bright side, Conley’s defensive impact has not diminished. Despite his smaller frame, he continues to excel with his basketball IQ and positioning. His defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) has actually improved from 1.4 last season to 1.7 this year.

However, his offensive box plus-minus (OBPM) has plummeted from 2.0 to -1.4, underscoring the extent of his offensive struggles.

A Need for Support

The Timberwolves may need to rely more on younger guards like Rob Dillingham to compensate for Conley’s decline. Dillingham, a rookie, has shown promise in limited minutes. Despite playing just 62 minutes so far this season, he has impressed with 30 points on 23-of-13 shooting, including a career-high 14-point outing against the Boston Celtics.

Dillingham’s ball-handling skills and scoring efficiency could make him a valuable asset as the Timberwolves look to manage Conley’s workload and mitigate his declining offensive output.

A Veteran’s Perspective

Conley himself seems acutely aware of his advancing age and diminishing window to compete at a high level. Ahead of last season’s playoffs, he reportedly told his teammates:

"I don’t think anyone wants to win more than I do. Selfishly, I told my teammates, 'Help me out, brothers. Help me while I’ve still got it. The time is now. I don’t have much left.'”

At 37 years old, Conley’s decline is not surprising, but it’s a stark reminder of the challenges teams face when relying on aging veterans. While he remains an invaluable locker-room presence and defensive contributor, the Timberwolves need him to find his shooting touch if they hope to climb out of their early-season slump.

For now, all eyes are on Conley to see whether his offensive struggles are merely a rough patch or a sign of things to come. The Timberwolves, and their fans, can only hope that he still has some fuel left in the tank.