19% from Three! Podziemski’s Decline—Did the Warriors Misjudge?

The Golden State Warriors have been one of the most exciting teams in the NBA this season. Despite a recent two-game losing streak, their 13-5 record firmly places them among the top three in the Western Conference. This success has exceeded preseason expectations, with ESPN predicting the Warriors would finish with a modest 45-37 record, ranking just eighth in the West.

One key to Golden State’s success has been their deep rotation. Coach Steve Kerr has consistently used 11- or 12-man lineups, allowing several players to thrive, including Andrew Wiggins, Buddy Hield, and even Draymond Green, who is shooting a career-best 42.4% from three.

However, not all players have lived up to expectations. Among the biggest disappointments is Brandin Podziemski, the sophomore guard who entered this season with high hopes but has struggled mightily.

Podziemski’s Rookie Success

Last season, Podziemski was a revelation. Selected with the 19th pick in the draft, he played 74 games, averaging 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in 26.6 minutes per game. His efficiency was solid, with shooting splits of 45.4%/38.5%/63.3%, leading to a 54.0% true shooting percentage.

Podziemski’s all-around skills—shooting, driving, passing, and defense—made him a key part of the Warriors’ rotation. Remarkably, he often served as the primary ball-handler, relegating veteran Chris Paul to the corners. His performance earned him a spot on the All-Rookie First Team, alongside stars like Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Brandon Miller, and Ausar Thompson.

Following his impressive rookie campaign, the Warriors saw Podziemski as a cornerstone. During the offseason, trade rumors involving Lauri Markkanen revealed Golden State’s priorities: they were reportedly open to including Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody in deals but considered Podziemski untouchable.

A Sophomore Slump

Fast forward to this season, and Podziemski’s performance has been a major letdown. Through 16 games, he is averaging just 7.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 23.3 minutes per game. While the drop in raw stats is concerning, his efficiency has plummeted to alarming levels.

Podziemski is shooting a dismal 36.8% from the field and an abysmal 19.3% from three (11-for-57). Even more worrying is his performance on wide-open threes (defenders six or more feet away), where he has made just 8 of 39 attempts—a 20.5% conversion rate. His true shooting percentage has fallen to 43.3%, ranking him 291st out of 303 qualifying players this season.

In several games, Podziemski has been outright invisible. He has already recorded three scoreless outings, including a 0-for-3 performance against the Spurs and a 5-for-0 dud in the season opener versus the Trail Blazers.

Comparing Rookie and Sophomore Years

Last season, Podziemski’s impact was undeniable. The Warriors outscored opponents by 5.9 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor and were outscored by 1.9 points per 100 possessions when he sat. He posted a team-best +264 cumulative plus-minus, even outperforming Stephen Curry’s +189.

This season, the picture has changed. While Golden State is still productive with Podziemski on the court (a +6.6 net rating), they are even better when he sits (+8.8 net rating). The numbers suggest his presence is no longer as critical as it was in his rookie year.

Draymond Green’s Perspective

Veteran leader Draymond Green has acknowledged Podziemski’s struggles, describing them as a classic case of the “sophomore slump.” In a recent interview, Green said:

“He’s feeling the pressure of trying to live up to his rookie season. After performing so well, it’s tough to maintain that, let alone exceed it. We talk to him every day, trying to help him understand that missed shots and mistakes don’t define him—nobody cares about those things as much as he does. If he focuses on what he does well, the shots will fall eventually.”

Green’s comments highlight a key issue: Podziemski appears to be overthinking every possession, placing unnecessary weight on each shot.

The Warriors’ Patience

One silver lining for Podziemski is the Warriors’ current standing. Unlike teams under pressure to win at all costs, Golden State has the luxury of time. Their strong record and deep roster allow them to weather his struggles, giving him the opportunity to work through his shooting woes without derailing the team’s success.

Still, questions remain. Was Podziemski’s stellar rookie season a fluke? Did the Warriors overvalue him during the offseason?

Searching for Solutions

Podziemski’s poor shooting has undoubtedly affected his confidence and role within the team. However, it’s worth noting that his all-around game—rebounding, playmaking, and defense—remains serviceable. To regain his form, he may need to adjust his shot selection, prioritize catch-and-shoot opportunities, and reduce his focus on creating off the dribble.

The Warriors, for their part, remain supportive. With veterans like Green and Stephen Curry providing mentorship, Podziemski has the tools and environment to bounce back.

What’s Next?

Golden State’s 13-5 start suggests they are still a legitimate contender, but the road ahead will test their depth and adaptability. For Podziemski, the coming weeks will be crucial. Will he rediscover the form that made him a breakout star last season, or will his sophomore slump continue to deepen?

As the season unfolds, the Warriors—and their fans—will be watching closely. Whether Podziemski rises to the occasion or fades further into obscurity remains one of the more intriguing subplots of Golden State’s campaign.