Template of Westbrook and Rose! The Highly-Touted Henderson, Is He Really That Bad?

Just a few days ago, the San Antonio Spurs narrowly defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 118-116 on the road, a game that didn’t garner much attention from the general fanbase. However, what went unnoticed by many was the showdown between two of the most highly anticipated players in recent NBA drafts – the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, Victor Wembanyama, and the No. 3 overall pick, Scoot Henderson.

If you remember back in 2022, before Wembanyama entered the NBA, he played a friendly match with his French team, Metropolitans 92, against G League Ignite, the team led by Henderson. Their first matchup was hailed as a preview of a future No. 1 overall pick battle. In that game, Wembanyama had an impressive stat line of 37 points, 4 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 7 three-pointers, while Henderson finished with 28 points, 5 rebounds, 9 assists, and 2 steals. At the time, it seemed like Wembanyama would likely be the top pick in the 2023 draft, while Henderson was projected to go at least in the top three. Both players had bright futures ahead of them. But when we look back now, the gap between them is much wider than anyone anticipated.

In the recent head-to-head matchup, Wembanyama put up another stellar performance, playing 34 minutes as a starter and finishing with 28 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 blocks. On the other hand, Henderson came off the bench for just 22 minutes, shooting 2-for-9 from the field and 0-for-6 from three, finishing with only 4 points, 2 rebounds, and 5 assists. The contrast in their performances was stark.

Wembanyama, who is already showing the potential of a future NBA superstar, has been exceptional in his rookie season. As of now, he’s averaging 23.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 3.5 blocks, while shooting an efficient 59.2% from the field. The Spurs currently have a balanced 13-13 record. It’s almost certain that Wembanyama will be selected as an All-Star for the first time this season, with a legitimate chance to make All-NBA and potentially even win the Defensive Player of the Year award.

However, Henderson’s performance this season is a far cry from the expectations set for him. In the Blazers' next game following their loss to the Spurs, Henderson’s struggles continued. In just 19 minutes of play against the Phoenix Suns, Henderson went scoreless, hitting none of his 4 field goal attempts and finishing with just 2 points, 1 rebound, and 4 assists.

Looking at Henderson’s season so far, it’s clear that things are not going as planned. In 19 games this season, he’s only started 3 times and is averaging 25.6 minutes per game. His stats of 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 2.8 turnovers per game reflect a significant decline in production from his rookie year. His shooting efficiency has also been a major issue, with a field goal percentage of just 40.0%, a three-point percentage of 27.9%, and a true shooting percentage of only 49.5%. Among the 316 players who qualify, he ranks 279th in true shooting percentage.

To compare, in Henderson’s rookie season, he averaged 14.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in 28.5 minutes per game, with a three-point shooting percentage of 32.5% and a true shooting percentage of 48.9%. His shooting numbers have dropped, and he has struggled to maintain a consistent role in the starting lineup.

Beyond the raw statistics, Henderson’s on-court play has left much to be desired. He struggles to hit three-pointers, a problem that has worsened this season, and he’s shown little improvement in his finishing around the basket. His shooting from within 5 feet of the hoop is a mere 52%, and his mid-range shooting from 5-9 feet has been abysmal, hitting just 2 of 18 attempts (11%).

Henderson’s primary strength is his physical tools: a quick first step, athleticism, and a strong ability to get to the basket. This season, he’s averaging 12.7 drives per game, more than Edwards (who averages 12.5 per game in 35.9 minutes). However, while Edwards is converting 7.6 points per game on those drives, Henderson only manages 5.4. His ability to break down defenses with his speed is still there, but his efficiency in doing so remains subpar.

Another area of concern is Henderson’s defense. While he has the physical profile of a good defender — standing 6’3” with a 6’9” wingspan — his impact on that end has been minimal. His opponents have seen an increase in shooting efficiency when guarded by Henderson, with field goal percentages rising by 4.5% and three-point percentages increasing by 2.6%.

As a playmaker, Henderson has potential, but he remains far from a finished product. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.78, which, while an improvement over his rookie season, still leaves much to be desired. He’s a player who tends to be more of a traditional point guard, but his turnover issues and struggles to consistently facilitate offense hold him back.

Comparing Henderson’s struggles to other 2023 top picks only adds to the disappointment. Brandon Miller, the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, has made significant strides this season, averaging 21.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Meanwhile, Henderson, the third overall pick, has not only failed to improve, but he’s actually regressed in several areas.

There are many factors at play. The Portland Trail Blazers have not exactly provided a nurturing environment for their young players. The team has struggled overall, and players like Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe have had their own difficulties, yet they maintain starting roles. Henderson, in particular, has been stuck in a situation where the team has failed to fully invest in his development. The Blazers seem to have picked him up with the intention of building around him, yet they’ve been hesitant to give him the consistent playing time and offensive responsibility necessary for him to grow. In fact, they traded away their star player, Damian Lillard, to make room for Henderson’s development — but it’s unclear if that decision has paid off yet.

When Henderson faced off against Wembanyama in 2022, the matchup created the image of a future rivalry. But as both players have entered the NBA, the gap between them has only grown larger. While Wembanyama is already showcasing Hall of Fame potential in his rookie season, Henderson’s struggles have many questioning his long-term trajectory. For now, it’s hard to say whether Henderson can turn things around and live up to the hype surrounding his selection as the third overall pick.

The hope is that Henderson can eventually find his rhythm and improve his game. However, the reality is that, at this point, he has yet to prove he can be the dynamic player that many envisioned when he was drafted. It's clear that he has the physical talent to succeed, but whether he can adapt to the speed and demands of the NBA remains to be seen. Fans and analysts alike are still waiting for Henderson to make the leap. If he can overcome his early struggles, there is still hope that he can develop into the star Portland hoped for when they selected him.