Marching North! Is Luka Dončić Back in the MVP Race?

The Dallas Mavericks have surged back into the spotlight, defeating the Toronto Raptors 125-118 on the road to secure their seventh consecutive win—the longest active streak in the NBA. With a 16-8 record, the Mavericks have climbed to second place in the Western Conference, a remarkable turnaround from their sluggish 5-7 start that had them languishing near the bottom of the standings earlier in the season.

This resurgence is not just a testament to the team’s overall improvement but also to the rekindled brilliance of their superstar, Luka Dončić.

Dončić's Dominance on Full Display

In the win against Toronto, Dončić delivered a masterclass. Playing 38 minutes, he tallied a triple-double with 30 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists, and 4 steals. He shot 9-for-20 from the field, 6-for-13 from three-point range, and converted all six of his free-throw attempts. Notably, he had already secured his triple-double by the end of the third quarter, helping the Mavericks build a lead that peaked at 24 points. His +10 plus-minus rating was the best among all players.

This performance was just the latest in a series of stellar outings since Dončić returned from a brief injury. Against the Washington Wizards, the Mavericks blew out their opponents by 36 points, with Dončić posting 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in under 30 minutes of action. His efficiency was impeccable, finishing with a staggering +36 plus-minus rating.

Earlier, Dončić spearheaded a comeback against the Memphis Grizzlies, contributing 37 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals while maintaining a +16 plus-minus. In his return game versus the Portland Trail Blazers, he tallied 36 points, 7 rebounds, and 13 assists, leading the Mavericks to a six-point victory.

Over these four games, Dončić has averaged 31.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists, and 3.3 steals, shooting 50.6% from the field, 42.9% from three, and 71.0% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage stands at an elite 64.2%, and his cumulative plus-minus is an eye-popping +63.

The MVP Case: Does Dončić Have a Shot?

After finishing third in last season’s MVP race, Dončić entered this year as one of the favorites for the award. However, a slow start to the season—both individually and for the team—dampened his chances. So far this season, Dončić is averaging 28.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.1 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, shooting 45.0% from the field, 34.8% from deep, and 76.4% from the line. While impressive, these numbers fall short of his career-best marks from last season, where he led the league in scoring with 33.9 points per game alongside 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists.

The Mavericks’ early struggles didn’t help either. Dončić missed six games during which the team went 5-1, raising questions about his impact on the team’s success. But now, with the Mavericks on a roll and Dončić playing at an elite level, his MVP candidacy is gaining momentum.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

MVP discussions often hinge on two key factors: individual statistics and team success. With the Mavericks now firmly in contention in the Western Conference, Dončić’s statistical output will be under greater scrutiny.

High-level advanced metrics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) are a reliable indicator of MVP candidacy. Dončić’s PER currently sits at 23.8, good for ninth in the league, but significantly below his career average and the marks set by other MVP frontrunners like Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Still, Dončić’s recent performances suggest he’s on track to improve these numbers as the season progresses.

Why MVP Matters for Dončić

For Dončić, the MVP award isn’t just another accolade—it’s a crucial milestone in cementing his legacy. Unlike Jokić or Antetokounmpo, who have multiple MVP trophies to their name, Dončić is still chasing his first. He has often been labeled a preseason favorite for the award, only to fall short. Last season’s third-place finish was a step forward, but it also raised expectations for him to finally take the crown.

Beyond personal recognition, an MVP award would elevate Dončić into the league’s upper echelon of superstars, a distinction that could bolster his case as one of the greatest players of his generation.

Sustained Excellence: The Key to Dončić’s MVP Bid

Winning MVP is no small feat; it requires consistent excellence over an entire season. For Dončić, the path to the award is clear: maintain his recent form, lead the Mavericks to a top-tier finish in the Western Conference, and continue delivering in clutch moments.

As the Mavericks look to build on their current seven-game winning streak, Dončić’s performances will undoubtedly be the driving force behind their success. While there’s still a long way to go in the season, one thing is certain—Luka Dončić is back in the MVP conversation, and his northward march has only just begun.