Back-to-Back 104 Points! Just How Bad Do the Nuggets Have to Be for Jokic to Miss the MVP?

Nikola Jokic continues to rewrite the limits of what’s possible on a basketball court. Over the past two games, the Denver Nuggets’ two-time MVP has unleashed back-to-back masterpieces, scoring a combined 104 points in less than 48 hours. After torching the Washington Wizards for a career-high 56 points, Jokic followed it up with a jaw-dropping 48-point performance against the Atlanta Hawks. His dominance has reignited debates about the MVP race and raised an intriguing question: What would it take for Jokic not to win the award this season?

Historic Back-to-Back Performances

In Denver's 141-111 win over Atlanta, Jokic played just 35 minutes but delivered a stat line that looked like something out of a video game. He shot 17-for-29 from the field, including 3-for-6 from deep, and 11-for-13 from the free-throw line, finishing with 48 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assists. His +25 plus/minus further underscored his value on the floor.

What makes this stretch even more remarkable is the sheer efficiency and effortlessness with which Jokic operates. Against Washington, he dropped 56 points on 20-for-32 shooting while adding 16 rebounds and 8 assists. This marked his career-high in scoring and showcased his ability to take over games when needed.

By scoring 104 points across two games, Jokic now ranks fourth all-time in back-to-back scoring totals since the 1967 statistical era. Only Kobe Bryant (110 points in 2006-07), De'Aaron Fox (109 points this season), and Bradley Beal (106 points in 2019-20) have scored more over two consecutive games.

Jokic’s Evolving Case for MVP

Statistically, Jokic is having a season for the ages. Prior to this historic back-to-back stretch, he was averaging 29.9 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game with shooting splits of 55.9% from the field, 50.0% from three, and 81.7% from the free-throw line. Following these two performances, those numbers have jumped to 32.3 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists, with shooting percentages improving across the board.

His current stats place him in the league’s top two in scoring, rebounding, and assists. On top of that, Jokic has maintained a league-leading true shooting percentage of 65.0% and a usage rate that has climbed to 30.8%. For context, these numbers surpass his averages from his previous three MVP-caliber seasons, including his historic back-to-back MVP campaigns in 2021 and 2022.

A Standard for MVPs

Historically, MVP winners need both exceptional individual statistics and a strong team record. Since the NBA entered the media voting era, the worst record for an MVP winner belonged to Russell Westbrook (47-35, 6th in the Western Conference) in 2016-17 and Jokic himself (48-34, also 6th in the West) in 2021-22.

Both cases had unique circumstances. Westbrook’s MVP season was fueled by the narrative of him achieving the first triple-double average in decades, combined with Kevin Durant's departure from the Oklahoma City Thunder. Meanwhile, Jokic’s MVP in 2022 came amid massive injuries to key Denver teammates like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., forcing him to carry a makeshift roster to 48 wins.

This season, Denver currently sits at 12-10, seventh in the Western Conference. While not an ideal record for an MVP frontrunner, the circumstances surrounding Jokic's candidacy are unique.

The On-Court Impact of Jokic

Jokic’s value extends beyond the box score. His on/off splits are historically dominant this season. With Jokic on the court, the Nuggets outscore opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, the team’s net rating plummets to -17.2, creating a staggering net efficiency swing of +27.7—the best in NBA history.

For comparison, the previous record was +24.1 by Kevin Garnett during his prime in the 2002-03 season. This metric alone underscores Jokic’s unparalleled ability to impact the game in every facet.

Could Denver’s Record Cost Jokic the MVP?

If Jokic’s production continues at its current level, it may take a historically poor team record to deny him the MVP. Denver’s subpar start to the season raises concerns, but there’s reason to believe they can right the ship. Jamal Murray’s return to form, Michael Porter Jr.’s scoring contributions, and a deep supporting cast give the Nuggets a solid foundation.

However, the precedent set by past MVP winners suggests that team success cannot be ignored. Denver will likely need to finish in the top four of the Western Conference standings for Jokic to secure his third MVP.

A Season for the Ages

Jokic’s 2023-24 campaign is shaping up to be one of the most extraordinary in NBA history. He’s not just dominating; he’s evolving, breaking records, and raising the bar for what’s expected from a big man in the modern game.

If the season were to end today, it would be difficult to argue against Jokic’s MVP candidacy, even with Denver’s modest record. His ability to control the game, elevate his teammates, and deliver unforgettable performances makes him a clear frontrunner.

For now, the question remains: How bad would Denver’s record have to be for Jokic to miss out on his fourth MVP? If his current trajectory holds, we may not find an answer, as he continues to push the boundaries of what’s possible on the hardwood.