Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Track for This Year's MVP with a +109 Plus-Minus?

Through seven games, one team has emerged as a dominant force in the Western Conference: the Oklahoma City Thunder. After defeating the Orlando Magic, the Thunder extended their winning streak to seven games, making them the only unbeaten team in the West, with a 7-0 record. While a hot start isn't entirely unusual in the NBA, OKC's start has been particularly striking. Not only have they won each game, but they’ve done so with at least a 12-point margin, setting an NBA record as the first team to begin the season with seven consecutive double-digit victories. Much of this dominance stems from their elite defense, which has been virtually unparalleled in the league so far.

In their recent win against the Magic, the Thunder held Orlando to just 86 points, marking the lowest scoring output for any team this season—previously held by the Denver Nuggets, who scored 87 points, also against OKC. Out of their first seven games, five saw the Thunder hold opponents under 100 points. Their defensive efficiency sits at an incredible 93.8, miles ahead of the second-place Golden State Warriors at 102.1 and third-place Orlando at 107.5. With a net efficiency rating of +17.1 and league-leading stats in forced turnovers (20.6) and steals per game (13.1), OKC’s defense is the foundation of their success.

Given their current momentum, the Thunder look like serious contenders, not just for a high Western Conference finish but potentially for an NBA Finals appearance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is undeniably the team's leader and, by many accounts, one of the most impactful players in the league. After seven games, he’s averaged 25.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. While his scoring is slightly down compared to last season—when he finished among the league’s top scorers—he's contributing across multiple areas with career-highs in rebounds and assists. Notably, Gilgeous-Alexander’s influence goes beyond just the box score, with a cumulative plus-minus of +109, or an average of +15.6 per game, showcasing his importance to the Thunder’s on-court success. These numbers suggest that he could be an early favorite in the MVP race if he sustains his current trajectory.

A Shift in Style: Increased Three-Point Attempts, Adjusted Efficiency

One of the notable shifts in Gilgeous-Alexander’s game this season has been an increase in three-point attempts. Previously known more for his mid-range shooting and attacking drives, SGA is now averaging 6.6 three-point attempts per game, up from 2.6 and 3.6 attempts in the previous two seasons. Although this shift in approach hasn't yielded the most efficient results yet—his three-point shooting percentage currently sits at 28.3%—it’s a strategic adjustment to add diversity to his offensive game. However, with the increased perimeter attempts, there has been a slight dip in his overall scoring efficiency, as he currently holds a field goal percentage of 47.4%, with a true shooting percentage of 58.2%, down from 62.6% and 63.6% in the last two seasons.

This stylistic change has also impacted his free-throw attempts. Known in recent years for his ability to draw fouls and get to the line—he was among the league leaders in free-throw attempts per game over the past two seasons—SGA is now averaging just 5.7 free-throw attempts per game, though he’s converting at a career-high rate of 92.5%. The lowered frequency of trips to the line suggests a more perimeter-oriented approach, yet he remains a highly efficient scorer in high-pressure moments.

Shai’s Impact on Both Ends of the Floor

SGA’s scoring may have dipped slightly, but his presence on the floor has been nothing short of transformative for the Thunder. When he’s on the court, Oklahoma City’s offensive rating is a robust 116.6, paired with a league-best defensive rating of 92.6, leading to an extraordinary net rating of +24.0. In his absence, however, the Thunder’s offense falls to 97.5, with a reduced net efficiency of +3.5. The contrast highlights his invaluable impact, not just as a scorer, but as a stabilizing force and defensive leader for his team.

His cumulative plus-minus rating of +109 reflects this impact in numerical terms and ranks him among the league’s elite in terms of on-court influence. SGA’s current box plus-minus (BPM) is 9.9, putting him third in the league, behind only Nikola Jokic (13.6) and Buddy Hield (10.1). Additionally, his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) stands at 27.1, the sixth-best in the NBA. These advanced metrics solidify his role as one of the most efficient and effective players so far, contributing not only with his own scoring but by enhancing his team’s play on both ends.

Thunder’s Defensive Foundation: The Path to a Championship?

The Thunder’s defensive dominance is setting them apart early in the season. Led by Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City boasts one of the most intimidating defensive rosters in the league. On the perimeter, SGA is flanked by defensive stalwarts like Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, and rookie Cason Wallace, all of whom bring a tenacious and versatile approach to guarding opponents. In the paint, Chet Holmgren has emerged as a formidable rim protector, bolstered further by the offseason acquisition of Alex Caruso, a known defensive specialist. With Isaiah Joe and Ousmane Dieng also contributing, the Thunder’s roster is a masterclass in defensive depth.

This defense has allowed OKC to disrupt even the most talented offenses, evidenced by their ability to hold opponents under 100 points in five out of seven games so far. The Thunder’s defensive efficiency rating of 93.8 is historically impressive, and if sustained, it could be one of the best in recent NBA history. OKC’s ability to defend at this level while maintaining a top-tier net efficiency bodes well for a potential deep playoff run, making them genuine contenders for a Western Conference title—and, possibly, an NBA Finals berth.

MVP Contention: SGA’s Road Ahead

To remain a strong MVP candidate, SGA will need to keep up his impactful play and ideally push his scoring numbers closer to last season’s level. In 2022-23, he averaged 31.4 points per game, ranking fourth in the league. While he currently sits outside the top 10 in scoring, a boost in offensive efficiency and an increase in overall volume could elevate his MVP profile. If he can finish the season with averages around 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game, coupled with a true shooting percentage above 60%, he would be difficult to ignore in the MVP conversation—especially if the Thunder can secure a top seed in the West.

Shai’s advanced metrics already speak to his MVP-caliber impact. His current BPM of 9.9 is elite, and his PER of 27.1 is among the highest in the league. However, the MVP race is always fierce. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic continues to post jaw-dropping numbers, while Luka Dončić is expected to contend once he finds his rhythm. SGA’s role will require both consistency and continued dominance, particularly in high-stakes matchups.

Conclusion: Can SGA Claim the MVP?

While Gilgeous-Alexander’s case for MVP is not without competition, the foundation he’s laid in these early games is undeniable. He’s the driving force behind one of the league’s most surprising and dominant teams, and his leadership on both ends of the floor has transformed OKC into a legitimate contender. If he can elevate his scoring while maintaining his efficiency and the Thunder continue their defensive dominance, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may just have what it takes to secure his first MVP trophy. For now, with a cumulative plus-minus of +109 and an unbeaten record, SGA has put the league on notice: Oklahoma City is here to contend, and he’s here to claim his spot among the NBA’s elite.