35 Minutes! 49+9+7! Why is Buddy Hield Only Worth 4 Years, $37 Million?

Golden State Warriors' latest acquisition, Buddy Hield, has taken the NBA by storm just two games into the regular season. Known for his lethal shooting, Hield was signed by the Warriors this offseason with a four-year, $37.75 million deal, a relatively modest contract in today’s NBA standards. Yet, his performance thus far has had fans and analysts alike questioning whether Golden State has struck gold.

In just 35 minutes spread across two games, Hield has racked up an impressive stat line of 49 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, with an absurd level of efficiency that puts him among the league's top-performing players in these early games. With the season barely underway, it's worth examining why Hield is earning such a surprisingly modest contract and whether his exceptional value for the Warriors can continue over the long term.

Hield's Explosive Start: Analyzing the Stats

Hield’s performance against the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz speaks for itself. In the season opener against the Blazers, he came off the bench, playing only 15 minutes, yet he still managed to score 22 points on an 8-of-12 shooting night, including 5-of-7 from three. In the second game against the Jazz, Hield stepped up even further, delivering 27 points in under 20 minutes, hitting an incredible 10-of-14 from the field and 7-of-9 from beyond the arc.

Through these two games, Hield has hit an astounding 12 three-pointers in just 35 minutes of playtime. His +/- ratings have been equally impressive, with a +20 against the Blazers and +24 against the Jazz. This kind of efficiency, especially from a shooter, is not common in the NBA. His scoring ability has offered Golden State a new weapon to complement Stephen Curry, and he’s shown a confidence and tenacity that fits seamlessly into the Warriors’ fast-paced, three-point-heavy style.

Hield's breakout performance has left many wondering if he can maintain this level of play, and if so, why the Warriors were able to sign him at a price point so seemingly below market value.

A Look Back: Hield’s Journey and Contract

Despite his remarkable three-point shooting abilities, Hield’s career has had its share of ups and downs, impacting the value he was offered in this contract. Last season, Hield split his time between the Indiana Pacers and the Philadelphia 76ers. While he averaged a respectable 12.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game during the regular season with a solid three-point shooting percentage of 38.9%, his performance was inconsistent, especially when it mattered most.

Hield's postseason struggles were evident in his limited time with the 76ers. Through the first three playoff games, he logged only 30 minutes total, hitting just 1 of 7 shots and failing to make a single three-pointer in three attempts. He totaled only 3 points and 1 rebound across those games, leading 76ers coach Nick Nurse to sideline him in key games. Hield did have a bounce-back performance in Game 6, putting up 20 points with a 6-of-9 three-point shooting display, but the inconsistency in his playoff performance raised questions about his reliability.

Another reason for Hield’s relatively modest contract is his defensive liabilities. Despite his offensive strengths, his defense has consistently been an area of concern. Throughout his career, Hield’s defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) has never been positive, indicating that while he contributes heavily on offense, his defense tends to hurt his team. Advanced stats show that teams are, on average, net-negative by 2.5 points per 100 possessions with Hield on the court, while they are net-positive by 1.5 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench.

Why Golden State Might be the Perfect Fit for Hield

Golden State’s playing style is uniquely suited to a player like Hield, who thrives in catch-and-shoot situations and can space the floor effectively. In the Warriors’ system, players like Hield can focus on their shooting and scoring, while defensive rotations and schemes help mask individual defensive weaknesses.

In addition, the Warriors have an established leader and anchor in Draymond Green, who orchestrates their defense, allowing players like Hield to concentrate on their strengths. Head coach Steve Kerr’s rotation strategy also emphasizes managing player minutes carefully, which could help Hield maintain his offensive explosiveness without overexposing his defensive limitations.

As Hield continues to adjust to the Warriors' lineup, his role as a three-point threat off the bench adds significant depth to Golden State’s offensive options. Not only does he alleviate pressure from Curry, but he also stretches defenses, making it more challenging for opponents to double-team the Warriors' primary stars.

Comparing Hield to the League’s Top Shooters

While Curry remains the league’s gold standard for three-point shooting, Hield is not far behind. With a career three-point shooting percentage of 40%, Hield ranks among the NBA’s elite sharpshooters. He is currently 10th among active players and 21st in NBA history for career three-pointers made, with 1,938 threes to his name. He’s just 50 threes shy of surpassing notable shooters like J.J. Redick, Joe Johnson, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Kidd.

Hield’s shooting consistency is another plus. Unlike many other shooters who tend to have streaky shooting seasons, Hield’s three-point percentage has never dipped below 36.8%, with his career high reaching 42.5% in a single season. This level of consistency adds to his value, as teams can rely on him to maintain his efficiency over time.

The Warriors' Long-Term Vision with Hield

Golden State's decision to sign Hield on a four-year deal with structured guarantees reflects a calculated risk-reward balance. Hield’s contract only fully guarantees the first two years, with the third year partially guaranteed at $3 million and the fourth year as a non-guaranteed player option. This setup gives the Warriors flexibility, allowing them to capitalize on Hield’s talents without locking in for a long-term commitment should his performance decline.

The Warriors' low-risk, high-reward investment could prove to be a masterstroke if Hield continues to deliver with the kind of performances he's shown in these first two games. If he can offer even half of this scoring output regularly, he would provide incredible value at his price point. On the flip side, if his shooting streak falters, the contract structure allows the Warriors to reassess and adjust without financial strain.

A Cautionary Note: Maintaining Realistic Expectations

While Hield's hot start is exciting, it’s crucial to temper expectations. Even elite shooters can go through shooting slumps, and players whose primary value is in their shooting can sometimes become liabilities if their shots aren’t falling. Hield's past postseason experiences suggest that his performance may vary, particularly in high-pressure scenarios. While he's shown an ability to score in bursts, consistency will be key for him to maintain his role and earn the contract he hopes for.

As the Warriors aim for another championship run, Hield’s performance will undoubtedly play a significant role. His skill set aligns perfectly with Golden State's style, and if he can keep up his current level of play, he might just be one of the most valuable signings of the offseason. However, with the unpredictable nature of NBA shooters, it's wise to wait and see if Hield’s shooting hot streak has the staying power the Warriors will need in their pursuit of another title.