Declining $165M Over Three Years: Is 26-Year-Old De'Aaron Fox Worth $345M Over Five?

The NBA world has been buzzing with news about Sacramento Kings star De'Aaron Fox after a report by NBA insider Matt Moore revealed that the guard rejected a three-year, $165 million extension last month. This bold decision has caught the attention of executives across the league, who are now monitoring Fox’s situation closely, ready to pounce if an opportunity arises.

Currently in the final year of his contract, Fox is earning $34.85 million this season. Over the summer, the Kings made multiple attempts to extend his deal, but negotiations stalled due to a disagreement over terms. While Sacramento reportedly offered a lucrative three-year deal, Fox is reportedly holding out for a supermax extension that would pay him $345 million over five years if he makes an All-NBA team.

A Strong Start to the Season

As the season nears its quarter mark, Fox is making his case as one of the league’s elite guards. Through 22 games, he is averaging career highs of 27.2 points and 5.0 rebounds, along with 6.0 assists and 1.7 steals per game. His shooting efficiency has also been impressive, with percentages of 49.2% from the field, 35.5% from three-point range, and 80.6% from the line, resulting in a 59.2% true shooting percentage, the second-best mark of his career.

Fox’s resurgence comes after a slightly underwhelming 2024 campaign in which his scoring increased to 26.6 points per game, but his efficiency dipped to a 56.7% true shooting percentage. That season, the Kings failed to make the playoffs, and Fox missed out on an All-NBA selection, which cost him a chance at a supermax extension. This year, however, he has looked more like the 2023 version of himself—a player who averaged 25.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists while leading the Kings to the Western Conference's third seed and snapping a 17-year playoff drought.

The Impact of Sacramento’s Offseason Moves

In an effort to bolster their postseason chances, the Kings made significant roster changes, acquiring DeMar DeRozan in a sign-and-trade deal to form a new "big three" with Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Despite initial concerns that DeRozan’s presence might reduce Fox’s offensive output, the opposite has occurred. Fox has managed to score more efficiently while taking fewer shots, demonstrating his adaptability and growth as a scorer.

One of the highlights of Fox’s season came in mid-November during a back-to-back set against the Timberwolves and Jazz. Against Minnesota, he erupted for a career-high 60 points, and the following night, he dropped 49 points, 9 assists, and 2 steals in a win over Utah. His combined 109 points over two games set a franchise record for back-to-back scoring performances.

Sacramento’s Struggles and Fox’s Role

Despite Fox’s individual brilliance, the Kings have struggled as a team. Their 10-12 record currently places them near the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Interestingly, advanced metrics paint a more optimistic picture. Sacramento has a net rating of +1.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 14th in the league, ahead of teams like the Suns, Lakers, and Spurs. When Fox, DeRozan, and Sabonis share the floor, the Kings outscore opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions, a mark that reflects their potential.

However, the Kings have faltered in clutch situations. In 13 games classified as clutch (games within five points during the last five minutes), they have a disappointing 5-8 record, ranking among the league’s worst in this category. This underperformance is particularly perplexing given the presence of Fox and DeRozan, both of whom are known for their ability to deliver in high-pressure moments.

A Player Worth a Max, But Not a Supermax

At just 26 years old, Fox is undoubtedly entering his prime and proving himself as an All-Star-level talent. His decision to reject the Kings’ three-year, $165 million offer is understandable; as one of the league’s rising stars, he has every right to seek a long-term, lucrative deal. But does he deserve the five-year, $345 million supermax extension he’s reportedly targeting?

The supermax threshold requires Fox to earn an All-NBA selection this season, a challenging task given the crowded field of elite guards. Even with the All-NBA positionless format, Fox faces stiff competition from the likes of Luka Dončić, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker. Outperforming such a stacked group to secure a spot seems unlikely, especially with Sacramento’s middling team record.

Moreover, while Fox’s value to the Kings is clear, his overall impact still falls short of the league’s top-tier superstars. Sacramento’s net rating improves by just 2.5 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor, and drops by -1.3 points per 100 possessions when he sits—a notable but not game-changing differential.

The Klutch Factor

It’s worth noting that Fox is represented by Klutch Sports, the influential agency led by Rich Paul, known for negotiating lucrative deals for its clients. Klutch has a reputation for leveraging media narratives and trade rumors to increase their clients’ market value. The recent report about Fox’s contract rejection could very well be part of a broader strategy to build leverage over Sacramento.

Ultimately, while Fox may not yet be worth a supermax deal, he remains an essential part of the Kings’ future. Given his age, talent, and recent performance, Sacramento will likely offer him a max extension at season’s end. Whether that will be enough to satisfy Fox—and stave off interest from rival teams—remains to be seen.