League-Leading Shot Volume: Is LaMelo Ball the Next James Harden?

Recently, ClutchPoints sparked a conversation by sharing a composite image of LaMelo Ball and James Harden in a Rockets jersey, boldly suggesting, “The next Harden is already here.” Their rationale? Ball’s shot volume this season mirrors the peak output of Harden during his heyday with the Houston Rockets.

Record-Setting Shot Attempts

Through the first 18 games of the season, LaMelo Ball has elevated his offensive involvement to unprecedented levels. Averaging 24.9 field goal attempts per game, Ball leads the league in this category. For context, last season, he averaged just 19.2 attempts per game, and he had only 9 games with 20+ shot attempts in total. This year, despite being only 20% into the season, Ball has already matched that figure in 16 games.

Ball’s averages for the season stand at 31.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game, a sharp increase from last year’s 23.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 8 assists over 22 injury-limited games.

Efficiency Concerns

However, ClutchPoints highlighted a significant caveat: Ball’s efficiency hasn’t kept pace with his volume. His shooting splits of 43.0% from the field, 35.6% from three, and 84.8% from the line yield a true shooting percentage of 56.4%—a career high but still below league average.

For historical comparison, there have been 55 instances of players averaging 24+ field goal attempts per game in a season. Among them, Ball’s field goal percentage ranks 38th, underscoring room for improvement in shot selection and scoring efficiency.

Harden Comparisons

The Harden comparison is both flattering and premature. Harden’s peak scoring seasons—his three consecutive scoring titles—set a high bar for efficiency and overall impact:

• 2017-18: 30.4 points per game, 61.9% true shooting
• 2018-19: 36.1 points per game, 61.6% true shooting
• 2019-20: 34.3 points per game, 62.6% true shooting

Harden combined relentless shot volume with elite efficiency, making him a generational offensive talent. While Ball has embraced Harden-like usage—his 39.55% usage rate leads the league and ranks third in NBA history behind 2017 Russell Westbrook and 2019 Harden—he hasn’t yet matched Harden’s ability to convert possessions into efficient points.

Areas for Growth

1. Finishing at the Rim

Both players excel at creating opportunities beyond the arc, but Ball lags behind Harden in finishing at the rim. Harden’s ability to attack the basket with precision and physicality added layers to his scoring repertoire. Ball, meanwhile, relies more heavily on perimeter shooting and has yet to master interior scoring.

2. Drawing Fouls

Harden’s mastery of drawing fouls transformed him into one of the most efficient scorers in league history. During his scoring title seasons, Harden averaged 10.9+ free throw attempts per game, whereas Ball currently averages just 5.8. Increasing his ability to generate trips to the line could significantly boost Ball’s scoring efficiency.

3. Durability

One overlooked aspect of Harden’s dominance was his durability. During his scoring title seasons, Harden missed just 10 games total across three years, consistently anchoring the Rockets’ offense. Ball, on the other hand, has struggled with injuries throughout his career. He played only 31 games as a rookie, followed by 36 games in 2021-22 and 22 games in 2022-23.

Although Ball started this season by playing in all 18 games, he recently suffered a left calf strain that will sideline him for at least two weeks. This latest injury raises concerns about his ability to sustain heavy usage over an entire season.

Flashes of Brilliance

Despite these challenges, Ball’s ceiling remains tantalizing. He has shown the ability to explode offensively, such as his career-high 50-point performance against the Bucks, where he took a staggering 38 shots (17 from three). While high-volume outings like these evoke shades of Harden, Ball’s inconsistencies—such as his 11-for-35 shooting night against the Heat—highlight the need for continued growth.

The Path to Superstardom

LaMelo Ball has undoubtedly taken a leap forward this season, solidifying his place as one of the league’s premier offensive engines. His dramatic increase in shot volume and scoring average positions him as a candidate for the Most Improved Player Award, but sustained success will depend on his ability to refine his efficiency, stay healthy, and expand his scoring arsenal.

While the comparisons to Harden may be premature, even being mentioned alongside a future Hall of Famer is a testament to Ball’s potential. With time, health, and continued development, he has the tools to emerge as one of the NBA’s next great superstars. For now, though, Ball’s journey is far from complete, and his evolution will be one of the league’s most intriguing storylines to watch.