Breaking Out: Chet Holmgren's Stellar Start Raises the Stakes — Is He Truly Behind Wembanyama?

The Oklahoma City Thunder are off to an electrifying start to the NBA season, achieving a three-game winning streak that positions them among the league’s only four undefeated teams, joining the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Lakers. Central to this exceptional opening has been the remarkable play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rapidly rising Chet Holmgren, whose breakout performances have set the Thunder on a promising path. Holmgren’s growth, combined with his recent dominance on both ends of the floor, has ignited discussions around his potential versus fellow “unicorn” Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs, especially considering Holmgren’s superior stats in key areas through the first games of the season.

Here’s a look at Holmgren’s breakout performances and what they could mean for him, the Thunder, and the comparisons to Wembanyama.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: MVP-Caliber Start

It’s been another big season opening for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who delivered a near-historic performance against the Atlanta Hawks, contributing significantly to the Thunder's undefeated start. With 35 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists, three steals, and three blocks in only 36 minutes, Gilgeous-Alexander joined elite company as just the third guard in NBA history to achieve a 30+ point, five-rebound, five-assist, three-steal, and three-block stat line in a single game — joining none other than Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s versatility, highlighted by his ability to dominate on both offense and defense, has firmly planted him in early MVP discussions this season. Despite strong competition from other major players like Luka Dončić and Nikola Jokić, Gilgeous-Alexander’s all-around game and the Thunder’s promising start give him a compelling case. Should the Thunder sustain their momentum and possibly contend for a 60-win season, Gilgeous-Alexander might not just be in the MVP conversation — he could very well become a frontrunner.

Chet Holmgren’s Impressive Leap in Year Two

Despite last season’s delay due to a preseason foot injury, Holmgren has come out strong in what is officially his second NBA season but effectively his first active year on the court. Across the Thunder's first three games, Holmgren has been sensational, posting averages of 23.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and a league-leading 4.0 blocks per game, all while shooting 56.3% from the field. His inside presence and defensive timing make him one of the top paint protectors, while his shooting range and agility allow him to stretch the floor as a rare offensive threat at his position.

Holmgren's performance thus far against the league’s top competition has been nothing short of impressive. Against the Denver Nuggets, Holmgren tallied 25 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks, showing he could handle high-pressure matchups against the defending champions. In a contest against the Chicago Bulls, he followed up with 21 points and 16 rebounds, including a coast-to-coast dunk that showcased his versatility. This emerging skill set — his size, defensive mobility, and perimeter capabilities — has sparked excitement for what he can bring to the Thunder long-term.

Holmgren vs. Wembanyama: The Rivalry Starts Here

Entering this season, Holmgren’s potential has often been assessed in comparison with Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs’ phenom who joined the NBA with even loftier expectations. Wembanyama, younger and touted for his extraordinary height and skill, was already ranked 11th in ESPN’s top NBA players this year, ahead of veterans like Anthony Davis, with Holmgren listed at 32. While Wembanyama’s potential ceiling is high, Holmgren’s current performance is positioning him as a serious rival — not just for Rookie of the Year but perhaps as a future perennial All-Star and championship-caliber player.

In two games this season, Wembanyama has averaged 23.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks with a shooting percentage of 42.9%. While this start is impressive for a rookie, Holmgren’s better rebounding, blocking, and shooting efficiency have given him an early edge. Moreover, Holmgren is benefitting from the Thunder's cohesive team structure. With a solid point guard in Gilgeous-Alexander and a supportive roster, Holmgren’s development may be streamlined compared to Wembanyama, who faces a Spurs team still rebuilding around him. Holmgren’s role is also clearly defined, making it easier for him to hone his skills within the Thunder’s system.

Holmgren’s smooth integration and strong start hint that he may reach milestones like his first All-Star selection or even a championship appearance before Wembanyama, provided the Thunder maintain their upward trajectory.

The Thunder’s Team Dynamics and Holmgren’s Potential Contract

Holmgren’s early success has big implications not only for the Thunder’s season but also for his long-term career in Oklahoma City. As this season technically counts as his third contract year, he will be eligible for a lucrative extension as early as next year. Should Holmgren sustain this level of play, particularly if he reaches benchmarks like an All-Star appearance or a top-15 finish in blocks and rebounds, he could be looking at a major rookie max extension.

The Thunder’s roster, which includes budding talents like Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams, is structured around team-first basketball, providing Holmgren with the necessary support for his growth. Coach Mark Daigneault has fostered a culture of development that emphasizes hard work and defensive intensity, making Holmgren’s goals — whether personal or team-oriented — achievable. Holmgren’s reputation as a gym enthusiast only reinforces this culture. Known for his intensive offseason training, he’s often seen in various “streetball” settings, using every chance to expand his game. His conditioning and commitment appear to have paid off, as he’s able to keep up with the NBA’s demanding schedule and take on a large role for the Thunder.

Can Holmgren Propel the Thunder Toward Championship Contention?

Holmgren’s defensive skills and efficient offense make him a rare asset in today’s NBA, where elite big men are tasked with protecting the rim, spacing the floor, and even facilitating offensive plays. If Holmgren continues to perform at his current level, there’s reason to believe that the Thunder could see a 60-win season — a feat that would not only bolster Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP campaign but also fast-track Holmgren’s path to stardom. Additionally, if the Thunder maintain their winning ways, they could be looking at their first playoff series win since the Durant-Westbrook era, with Holmgren at the heart of that success.

Holmgren’s position as a unique player — one who combines rim protection with perimeter skills — allows the Thunder to employ flexible lineups that create matchup challenges for virtually any opponent. As his confidence grows, Holmgren has shown signs of becoming a true two-way player capable of elevating his team when it matters most. His impact on the Thunder’s defense, combined with his expanding offensive repertoire, suggests that the franchise may be closer to contention than many expected.

The comparisons to Wembanyama will likely continue throughout both players’ careers. For Holmgren, however, his current play suggests that he’s focused on more immediate goals. With a healthy Thunder roster and the support of a dedicated coaching staff, Holmgren’s development could very well outpace initial projections — and, potentially, even Wembanyama’s anticipated rise.