Negotiation Breakdown! What Kind of Contract is Jonathan Kuminga Really Worth?

The Golden State Warriors have been busy as the new NBA season approaches. After all, teams are in a rush to finalize roster moves and secure players before the regular season begins. For the Warriors, they made a significant move just before the early extension deadline (which officially closed early this morning), successfully agreeing to a 3-year, $39 million extension with Moses Moody. Moody, the 14th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, played 66 games last season, posting career-highs across the board with averages of 8.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per game. His efficiency was notable, with shooting splits of 46.2% from the field, 36.0% from three-point range, and 78.5% from the free-throw line. Given Moody’s limited minutes, just 17.5 per game, his per-36-minute numbers look even more impressive, where he averaged 16.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists.

While simple per-minute calculations don’t always tell the full story, Moody has consistently shown that he’s a player who can contribute when given the opportunity. Over the past few years, his playing time has been sporadic, in part due to Golden State’s deep backcourt. But some also speculate that head coach Steve Kerr or the front office may have been holding him back in order to manage his market value during contract negotiations. In any case, securing a 22-year-old lottery pick with potential on a deal worth an average of $13 million per season is undoubtedly a win for the Warriors under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Moody himself expressed relief after the extension was finalized, stating, "Getting the extension done gives me a sense of security, and that feeling is better than anything. It’s a great feeling." However, while Moody’s extension came through smoothly, the same cannot be said for his fellow young teammate, Jonathan Kuminga.

Kuminga’s contract negotiations have been a point of contention throughout the entire offseason. According to reports, Kuminga was seeking a maximum contract, similar to what other top-tier players from his draft class—such as Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Scottie Barnes—have received, which is in the range of 5 years, $224 million. The Warriors, on the other hand, are eager to retain Kuminga but are not willing to offer him a max deal. Reports indicate that, as of the early extension deadline, the two sides were nowhere close to reaching an agreement.

NBA insider Shams Charania described Kuminga’s situation by saying, “Kuminga believes he can be a star player. He envisions himself following a career path similar to Kawhi Leonard or Pascal Siakam.” This confidence is admirable, but it also raises eyebrows. Can Kuminga truly become the next Kawhi Leonard or Pascal Siakam? Or is he overestimating his current value?

To be fair, Kuminga did show significant improvement last season. In 74 games, 46 of which he started, he averaged 16.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 26.3 minutes per game, with shooting splits of 52.9% from the field, 32.1% from three, and 74.6% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage of 59.8% also indicates his growth as a scorer. Like Moody, Kuminga’s minutes were limited early on in his career, but last season, with Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins struggling with consistency, Kuminga found himself earning more playing time and even a starting role.

Kuminga’s strengths are clear. Standing at 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, he possesses excellent physical tools. His athleticism, explosiveness, and ability to finish at the rim make him an intriguing talent at the forward position. Last season, he shot an impressive 70.3% on 417 attempts near the basket, showing that his finishing ability is top-notch. In this regard, he does indeed share some similarities with Kawhi Leonard and Siakam, both of whom are known for their ability to use their physical gifts to score around the rim.

But when we examine Kuminga’s overall game, it becomes clear that there are still significant gaps preventing him from reaching that star-level status he believes he can achieve. The most glaring issue is his shooting. Last season, Kuminga made just 53 of his 165 three-point attempts, which equates to a subpar 32.1% shooting from beyond the arc. Both the volume and accuracy of his three-point shooting are concerns. In the modern NBA, where spacing and shooting are at a premium, this is a major limitation for a player looking to take on a more prominent role.

And it’s not just his three-point shooting that needs work. Kuminga also struggled with his mid-range game. From beyond 10 feet, he shot just 38.6% on 127 attempts, highlighting his inconsistency as a shooter from all areas of the floor. The lack of a reliable jumper makes it difficult for Kuminga to create his own shot, and this limitation has been a significant factor in capping his offensive ceiling so far.

Perhaps the most critical issue in Kuminga’s development is his ball-handling and ability to create offense for himself. In today’s NBA, star wings are expected to have at least a functional handle to break down defenders and generate scoring opportunities off the dribble. Kuminga, however, has yet to demonstrate the kind of ball-handling or shot-creation ability that would make him a go-to scorer. Without improvements in this area, it will be hard for him to justify the max contract he’s seeking.

On the defensive end, Kuminga has shown flashes of potential, thanks to his size, athleticism, and quickness. He can switch onto multiple positions and hold his own, which is a valuable skill in the Warriors’ switch-heavy defensive scheme. However, even on defense, he has yet to reach the level of impact that Kawhi Leonard or Pascal Siakam displayed early in their careers. For context, Leonard was already a Finals MVP in his third season, while Siakam won the NBA’s Most Improved Player award in his third year. Kuminga, in comparison, still has a long way to go before reaching that level.

It’s also worth noting that even Pascal Siakam, when he signed his first extension with the Toronto Raptors, did not receive a maximum contract. Instead, he agreed to a 4-year, $130 million deal, which was still a lucrative contract but not quite at the level Kuminga is aiming for. When we compare Kuminga to players in his draft class, the numbers suggest that he may be slightly overestimating his current value. Take, for example, Jalen Johnson, the 20th overall pick in the same draft, who recently signed a 5-year, $150 million extension with the Atlanta Hawks. Johnson posted averages of 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks last season, shooting 51.1% from the field and 35.5% from three. Statistically speaking, it’s hard to argue that Kuminga’s production is superior to Johnson’s, yet Johnson’s contract falls short of max-level money.

Of course, none of this is to suggest that Kuminga lacks potential. He certainly has the physical tools and upside to become a very good player in the NBA. But the idea of a max contract at this stage in his career may be a bit premature. Even a deal similar to Jalen Johnson’s 5-year, $150 million contract might give the Warriors’ front office pause, given Kuminga’s current trajectory.

The good news for Kuminga is that he still has time to prove his worth. With one year remaining on his current contract before entering restricted free agency, Kuminga has the opportunity to make significant strides in his game and prove that he’s worth the kind of money he’s asking for. If he can improve his shooting, tighten up his ball-handling, and continue to develop his defensive impact, there’s no doubt that he could command a lucrative contract extension. In fact, if he takes a leap this season and perhaps even makes an All-Star appearance, the Warriors would likely be more than happy to reward him with the max deal he desires.

But for now, Jonathan Kuminga remains a player with potential, not a proven star. The Warriors, as a championship-contending team with a delicate salary cap situation, have to carefully consider how much they’re willing to invest in their young talent. And unless Kuminga takes that next step in his development, a max contract may remain out of reach.