A First-Round Pick! Should Teams Take a Chance on 36-Year-Old Brook Lopez?

Brook Lopez's time with the Milwaukee Bucks appears to be nearing its end. As the free agency period approached, reports indicated that the Bucks were open to adjusting their roster and were evaluating Lopez's trade value. Recently, journalist Gery Woelfel reiterated that the Bucks are still very willing to trade Lopez, but their asking price is high: a first-round pick. This raises the question: should teams be willing to part with such a valuable asset for a 36-year-old center?

Brook Lopez's Current Situation

Last offseason, Lopez became a free agent and garnered interest from multiple teams. Ultimately, he chose to stay with the Bucks, signing a two-year, $48 million contract. The contract is structured with a decreasing salary, paying him $25 million last season and $23 million in the upcoming one.

The Bucks had a tumultuous 2022-2023 season. Following a first-round playoff exit at the hands of the Miami Heat, the Bucks made several changes. Head coach Mike Budenholzer was replaced by Adrian Griffin, who was subsequently dismissed mid-season, leading to Doc Rivers taking over. Additionally, Grayson Allen left in free agency, Jrue Holiday was traded, and Damian Lillard was acquired. Despite these upheavals and various injuries, the Bucks managed to win 49 games but were once again eliminated in the first round, this time by the Indiana Pacers.

Lopez's Performance and Contributions

Amidst the chaos, Brook Lopez delivered solid performances. He played 79 games, averaging 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2.4 blocks per game with shooting splits of 48.5% from the field, 36.6% from three, and 82.1% from the free-throw line, culminating in a true shooting percentage of 60.8%. In the playoffs, with Giannis Antetokounmpo injured and Lillard also sidelined, Lopez stepped up, averaging 17.7 points with a shooting accuracy of 58.7% from the field and 43.5% from beyond the arc.

Lopez has successfully transitioned into a 3-and-D center since joining the Bucks. His three-point shooting and rim protection make him a rare commodity in the league. Despite his lower rebound numbers, Lopez excels at boxing out, allowing teammates to secure rebounds. His defensive impact is significant, as evidenced by leading the league in shots contested per game (15.6) and total shots contested (1,235). The Bucks were notably better with Lopez on the court, outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions compared to being outscored by 1.8 points when he was off the court. When Lopez, Antetokounmpo, and Lillard shared the floor, the Bucks' offensive rating soared to 120.9 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 107.7 points, resulting in a net rating of +13.2.

The Downsides and the Trade Dilemma

However, Lopez's age and limitations are evident. At 36, his mobility is declining, making it challenging for him to defend the perimeter effectively. This weakness was exploited by the Pacers in the playoffs. His struggles in switching onto smaller, quicker players are mitigated when he has strong perimeter defenders around him, like Holiday and Allen, and a defensive anchor in Antetokounmpo. Under Budenholzer, the Bucks' defensive strategy allowed Lopez to focus on rim protection, a key component of their championship-winning formula.

The Bucks' current system changes have reduced Lopez's effectiveness, prompting Milwaukee to consider trading him. While Lopez remains a valuable player, his fit within the Bucks' evolving system is no longer as seamless. If Lopez enters the trade market, numerous teams, particularly in the Western Conference, will likely be interested. The conference is packed with teams boasting strong frontcourt players, and those lacking in this area, like the Oklahoma City Thunder, have already made moves to address it by signing Isaiah Hartenstein to a three-year, $87 million contract. Other teams, such as the Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, and San Antonio Spurs, would greatly benefit from Lopez's presence.

Lopez's Potential Suitors

For the Lakers, Lopez's addition would provide LeBron James with more spacing and alleviate Anthony Davis's defensive burden, maximizing Davis's roaming capabilities. The Kings, looking to build on their recent success, could use Lopez's veteran presence and defensive skills. The Pelicans, with a young and talented roster, would benefit from Lopez's experience and shooting. The Spurs, rebuilding around Victor Wembanyama, could use Lopez as a mentor and stabilizing force.

Is a First-Round Pick Worth It?

The primary question is whether Lopez is worth a first-round pick. Considering his age, significant contract, and clear limitations, this price seems steep. A first-round pick is a valuable asset, especially for teams in rebuilding phases or those looking to add young talent. Lopez's contribution would likely be short-term, possibly only a season or two. If the Bucks were to lower their asking price to a few second-round picks, Lopez would undoubtedly become a highly attractive trade target.

Conclusion

Brook Lopez's career with the Milwaukee Bucks is likely winding down, with the team exploring trade options. His unique skill set as a 3-and-D center makes him a valuable asset, but his age and contract complicate potential trades. While his contributions to the Bucks have been significant, the team's evolving system and rebuilding focus suggest that moving Lopez could be beneficial for both parties. For teams considering trading for Lopez, weighing the cost of a first-round pick against his potential impact will be crucial in determining whether he is worth the investment.