21+9+5 Per Game! Rockets' Future Cornerstone: Is Alperen Şengün Worth a Max Contract?

Recently, Evan Mobley, the third overall pick of the 2021 NBA Draft, agreed to a five-year, $224 million max extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This makes Mobley the fourth player from the 2021 draft class to secure a max extension, following Cade Cunningham (Pistons), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), and Franz Wagner (Magic). Following Mobley's extension, fellow 2021 draftee Alperen Şengün addressed his own contract situation in an interview. Şengün stated, "We're also waiting. My agent is negotiating. I'll be a restricted free agent next year, which means other teams can make offers, potentially a four-year max. My current team can offer a five-year deal. So next year, I could get a four-year contract worth $200 million or $180 million. That's the market. The Rockets don't have to extend me this year, but if they don't, those offers will be on the table next year."

When asked if he hoped to secure an extension this summer, Şengün candidly replied, "Of course, I want it because it would give me peace of mind and security for my future. I wouldn't have to worry about getting injured." Şengün's comments align with the basic provisions of the collective bargaining agreement, and it is clear that he is very confident in his ability to secure a max deal next year.

So, the question arises: Is Alperen Şengün worth a max contract?

Last season, the Houston Rockets did not make the playoffs, but Şengün delivered the best performance of his career. He played 63 games, all as a starter, averaging 32.5 minutes, 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game, with a 53.7% field goal percentage and a 58.5% true shooting percentage. For comparison, in the previous year, Şengün averaged 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in 28.9 minutes per game. In his rookie season, he was a backup, averaging 9.6 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.

Under former coach Stephen Silas, Şengün was not the primary development focus, but with Ime Udoka taking over the Rockets, Şengün became the biggest beneficiary of the new system. As a key player, he even entered All-Star discussions and had several impressive performances, including a game against the Spurs in March, where he scored 45 points, grabbed 16 rebounds, and dished out 3 assists over the head of Victor Wembanyama, the best rookie and second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Without exaggeration, Şengün demonstrated his potential as a cornerstone player last season. His low-post offensive skills are excellent, and he has outstanding passing ability. Comparatively, his stats were even more impressive than those of All-NBA and All-Star players like Nikola Jokić and Domantas Sabonis at similar stages of their careers. However, Şengün has some weaknesses. His rim protection is subpar, his mobility is slow, and he lacks the ability to stretch the floor, shooting just 29.7% from three-point range last season and 28.4% for his career.

Additionally, two factors limit the possibility of Şengün securing a max extension this summer:

1. Şengün suffered an injury at the end of the season and was sidelined. While reports indicate he has fully recovered, his actual condition will only be clear once the new season starts. Hopefully, injuries won’t impact his performance.
2. After Şengün’s injury, fellow 2021 draft class member Jalen Green stepped up, averaging 27.7 points per game in March and leading the Rockets to a 13-2 record. Both Şengün and Green are talented, but their playing styles don’t complement each other well. The Rockets will face a dilemma of choosing which player to build around—especially with their newly drafted third overall pick, Scoot Henderson, showing promise in the Summer League, potentially adding to their "talent surplus" conundrum.

It seems likely the Rockets will wait until early next season to decide whether to extend Şengün or Green. They need to determine who should be their primary focus or who better complements their new cornerstone, Henderson.

Focusing on Şengün, it’s clear that without an All-Star or All-NBA selection and coming off an injury, he isn’t worth a max contract right now. However, max deals for young players often hinge on potential, and Şengün has demonstrated top-five or even top-three potential in his draft class. If Mobley and Wagner can secure max contracts, then Şengün certainly has a case for one too.

Regarding the specific figures, a five-year $224 million deal (up to $269 million) sounds excessive, but that’s the advantage of the current era. With the new TV deal and the salary cap set to rise, future contracts will only get bigger. Being in the right era is a huge advantage for these young players. They are indeed very fortunate.

Last season, Şengün showed he could be a franchise cornerstone. His remarkable low-post skills, combined with his exceptional passing, set him apart. When comparing his numbers to those of Jokić and Sabonis, it’s evident that Şengün is on a similar trajectory. However, his weaknesses cannot be ignored. His lack of rim protection and floor spacing limits his effectiveness in modern NBA schemes. His slow mobility also poses challenges on both ends of the court.

Şengün’s injury at the end of the last season is a concern. Although reports suggest a full recovery, only time will tell how he performs when he returns. Another factor is Jalen Green’s emergence. Green's performance after Şengün’s injury showcased his potential to be the Rockets’ leading star. The Rockets’ decision on whom to build around, whether it’s Şengün, Green, or even their new promising rookie Scoot Henderson, will shape the franchise’s future.

From Şengün’s perspective, securing a max contract now would provide peace of mind and financial security, allowing him to focus on his game without worrying about injuries. However, the Rockets might be prudent to wait until next season to make a final decision. Evaluating Şengün’s performance post-injury and assessing how he fits with Green and Henderson will be crucial.

Şengün’s potential and skill set make him a candidate for a max contract. His impressive performance last season, combined with his high basketball IQ and unique abilities, set him apart from his peers. While his weaknesses are areas for concern, his strengths and potential for growth are undeniable.

The max contract figures being discussed today might seem inflated, but they reflect the evolving landscape of the NBA’s financial dynamics. As the salary cap continues to rise, future contracts will likely follow suit. Young players like Şengün are in a favorable position to benefit from this trend.

The Rockets’ decision will ultimately depend on their vision for the future and how they see Şengün fitting into that picture. If Şengün continues to develop and addresses his weaknesses, he has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone worthy of a max contract. However, the Rockets must weigh all factors and make a decision that aligns with their long-term goals.

Alperen Şengün’s journey from a promising rookie to a potential franchise player is a testament to his hard work and talent. His future, whether with a max contract or not, will be one to watch closely as he continues to grow and develop in the NBA.