Averaging 16+9! Is Third-Year Mobley Worth $224 Million Over Five Years?

The Cleveland Cavaliers have made a significant move by extending Evan Mobley’s contract. According to ESPN, Mobley, the third overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, has agreed to a five-year, $224 million maximum contract extension with the Cavaliers. The contract starts at $38.66 million and escalates over the following four years: $41.75 million, $44.85 million, $47.94 million, and $52.03 million. This extension includes the designated rookie provision, which means if Mobley makes an All-NBA team, wins MVP, or secures the Defensive Player of the Year award next season, the contract could increase to $269 million over five years.

Mobley’s contract negotiations have been ongoing for some time, with many expecting the Cavaliers to negotiate a lower figure. Surprisingly, the Cavs granted Mobley a max extension with the designated rookie clause. But is he worth it? At this point, it's debatable.

Mobley’s rookie season was impressive. He averaged 15.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game, shooting 50.8% from the field. He finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and was seen as a cornerstone for the Cavaliers' frontcourt future. In his sophomore season, Mobley showed slight improvement, averaging 16.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game, with a shooting percentage of 55.4%. The Cavaliers led the league in defensive efficiency that year, and Mobley was named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team, finishing third in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Despite these solid performances, Mobley’s third season did not meet the high expectations. Due to injuries, he played only 50 regular-season games, averaging 15.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game. His shooting improved to 58.0%, and he made 22 out of 59 three-point attempts, a 37.3% success rate. However, his low volume of three-point attempts and reliance on assisted shots (with an assisted field goal percentage of 80.2%) indicate his offensive game remains limited. Mobley’s primary scoring comes from putbacks and finishing around the rim, lacking significant development in his post moves or face-up game.

In the playoffs, facing the Boston Celtics, Mobley stepped up in Jarrett Allen’s absence. He averaged 21.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, shooting an impressive 62.7%. In Game 5, despite the Cavaliers' elimination, Mobley scored 33 points on 15-of-24 shooting, with 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal. This performance showcased his potential and resilience.

The Cavaliers believe in Mobley's potential, which is why they granted him this substantial contract. At 23, Mobley is one of the most promising young big men in the league. If he can develop a reliable jump shot or improve his low-post game, his ceiling could surpass even that of Donovan Mitchell. Cavaliers' new head coach Kenny Atkinson expressed high hopes for Mobley, stating, "Mobley is a crucial part of our team. We have the responsibility to help him become a top 15-20 NBA player, and possibly even a top 5 player. With his skill set, physical attributes, and character, why not? I believe we can achieve that."

Additionally, Mobley’s extension is somewhat influenced by the era’s financial context. The NBA’s 11-year, $76 billion broadcast deal will likely increase the salary cap annually. Many players have already benefited from this trend, and Mobley is no exception. While the final year of his new contract exceeds $52 million, the starting salary for max contracts could surpass $60 million if the cap continues to rise by 10% annually.

Despite this optimistic outlook, the Cavaliers will face significant salary cap pressures. Two years ago, the Cavaliers extended Darius Garland’s contract for five years at $193 million. This summer, they issued two max contracts: Mobley’s five-year, $224 million extension and Mitchell’s three-year, $150.3 million deal. When Mobley's new contract begins in the 2025-26 season, Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley alone will account for $125 million in salaries. If the roster remains unchanged, adding Jarrett Allen’s $20 million and Max Strus’s $15.93 million, the Cavaliers' starting lineup would cost $160 million. Salary cap experts estimate that if the cap rises by 10% annually, the Cavaliers' starting lineup salary will fall $35.94 million short of the first apron and $40.78 million short of the second apron, meaning the team will likely face luxury tax penalties, possibly exceeding the second apron. The Cavaliers last paid the luxury tax in the 2017-18 season.

Moreover, Jarrett Allen’s current contract has only two years and $40 million remaining, and his performance warrants a higher salary. Thus, early extension discussions will be unavoidable next offseason. To maximize Mobley’s development, the Cavaliers might consider trading Allen. Currently, the Mobley-Allen duo provides strong defense but lacks offensive spacing and compatibility. Trading Allen could benefit both parties. Given the trade rumors surrounding Allen this summer, it seems likely he will be moved next season. Hopefully, the Cavaliers can acquire a strong forward in return; otherwise, even reaching the Eastern Conference Finals could be challenging with the current roster.

Returning to Mobley, while his current performance might not justify a max contract, the Cavaliers are betting on his potential. His defensive prowess ensures he won't be significantly overpaid. The key question is how much Mobley can grow. He dazzled in his rookie season, with many comparing his potential to Tim Duncan's. Although there is still a gap, fans hope to see a stronger and healthier Mobley next season, leading a more formidable Cavaliers team.