Top-Tier Fourth Option! Is 28-Year-Old Kuzma Worth Two First-Round Picks?

DeMar DeRozan's recent move to the Sacramento Kings has reshaped the team's core, forming a formidable trio with De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Alongside rising talents like Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, and Keon Ellis, this lineup seems poised to make a serious playoff push in the Western Conference. However, the Kings' efforts to bolster their roster aren’t over. According to recent reports, they are still eyeing Kyle Kuzma, with plans to potentially offer Kevin Huerter and draft picks. The Washington Wizards, on the other hand, are holding out for two first-round picks in exchange.

The Kings' interest in Kuzma isn't new. Rumors of their pursuit date back to mid-season, and despite acquiring DeRozan, there’s still a pressing need for height and three-point shooting on the wing, especially after Harrison Barnes' departure. Kuzma would be an ideal fit to address these gaps.

From the Wizards’ perspective, they have been in a rebuilding phase ever since trading away Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. Trading Kuzma for first-round picks seems like a logical step in their rebuild, especially since they have already traded Deni Avdija for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and Malcolm Brogdon earlier this offseason.

Is Kuzma Worth Two First-Round Picks?

Last season, Kuzma played 70 games for the Wizards, all as a starter, averaging 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. His shooting splits were 46.3% from the field, 33.6% from three, and 77.5% from the free-throw line, with a true shooting percentage of 54.7%. These are impressive numbers, marking continuous improvement during his three-year stint with the Wizards. Kuzma's scoring last season ranked 27th in the league, surpassing established stars like Karl-Anthony Towns, Pascal Siakam, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, and Brandon Ingram. Additionally, his assists were a career-high, placing him 58th in the league, comparable to players like Jaden Ivey, Kyle Lowry, Devin Vassell, and Siakam, and even surpassing Bam Adebayo, Franz Wagner, and Jaylen Brown.

However, Kuzma's shortcomings are well-documented. He can use up possessions but lacks efficiency in doing so—a consistent issue throughout his career, whether with the Lakers or the Wizards. Moreover, Kuzma has struggled to contribute to team victories. In his three seasons with the Wizards, the team posted 35 wins twice and only 15 wins last season. This lack of impact on winning games paints a picture of a player who, despite good stats, might be seen as a volume scorer without significant efficiency or winning impact.

Kuzma’s Defensive Potential and Contract Value

On the defensive end, Kuzma isn’t without merit. Although his defense was subpar last season, this can be attributed to the overall defensive environment in Washington. In his earlier seasons with the Lakers and the first two years with the Wizards, Kuzma’s defense was serviceable. Standing at 6'9" with decent mobility, he is a viable option at the power forward spot—so much so that the Dallas Mavericks considered him over PJ Washington during their search for a four.

Kuzma's contract is another point in his favor. He recently signed a four-year, $102 million deal with the Wizards, which is structured to decrease over time. The remaining three years of his contract are worth $23.52 million, $21.48 million, and $19.43 million, respectively. Given that Kuzma is currently 28, he will still be in his prime when his contract ends at 31. With the new broadcast deals in place, his $19.43 million salary in three years might be equivalent to a mid-level exception, making his contract a bargain in the future.

The Market for Kuzma

Considering his overall skill set, contract, and fit, Kuzma is an attractive option for many contending teams. When looking at recent trades, like those involving Miles Bridges and Dejounte Murray, two first-round picks for Kuzma doesn’t seem outlandish. However, the quality of the picks matters significantly. If the picks are the Kings' own from the next two or three years (likely to be late first-rounders), or if they are protected picks, the price seems reasonable. But if the picks are unprotected and far into the future, the cost becomes steep—especially since the Kings are also asking the Wizards to absorb Huerter’s contract, which might require at least one unprotected pick in return.

Kuzma's selectiveness about his next destination could also play a role. He previously rejected a move to the Mavericks because he didn’t view them as serious contenders—a decision that backfired when Dallas made a playoff push. If a similar situation arises, Kuzma might opt to stay put, preferring to be a leading figure on a rebuilding team rather than a fourth option on a playoff contender.

Despite Kuzma having already won a championship with the Lakers, staying in a leadership role on a young team like the Wizards might be more appealing. Given his remaining three years on contract, the Wizards aren’t under immediate pressure to trade him, allowing them to wait for the right offer. Ultimately, it’s all about the trade package. If the Kings are willing to part with two first-round picks and a swap, they could secure Kuzma. But if they’re ready to pay such a price, why not aim higher, perhaps for someone like Lauri Markkanen? In the modern NBA, versatile forwards with shooting and ball-handling skills are highly coveted, as seen with the Mavericks' success with PJ Washington.

Kyle Kuzma fits this mold—good ball-handling, respectable defense, and valuable shooting. His trade rumors will likely persist, and we’ll have to wait and see how it all unfolds.