Letting Go of the Championship Dream: What Can 39-Year-Old Chris Paul Bring to the Spurs?

The 2024 free agency period has officially begun, and as in previous years, the first 24 hours have been a whirlwind of signings. In less than five hours, 23 free agents have agreed to new contracts worth a staggering total of $1.2 billion. This figure doesn't even include high-profile players like Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, and Klay Thompson. Among these signings, Chris Paul's move has garnered significant attention.

Just before free agency started, the Golden State Warriors announced they were waiving Chris Paul. His salary for next season was set at $30 million, but because the contract was non-guaranteed, the Warriors were able to release him without paying any of it. This move marked the end of a failed trade from the previous year. To acquire Paul, the Warriors traded Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Ryan Rollins, a 2027 second-round pick, and a 2030 first-round pick (top 20 protected). Ultimately, Paul only played one season for the Warriors, who missed the playoffs.

Following his release, multiple teams expressed interest in signing Paul, including the Lakers. However, the Lakers were only willing to offer a minimum contract. Eventually, the Spurs secured Paul with a one-year, $11 million deal, bringing him to San Antonio. The pairing of Chris Paul and Victor Wembanyama is certainly intriguing.

The Wembanyama Factor

Victor Wembanyama is an extraordinary talent, considered a generational player. In his rookie season, he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game. He not only won Rookie of the Year and led the league in blocks, but he also made the All-Defensive First Team and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. This was all achieved in under 30 minutes of play per game. At 20 years old, Wembanyama is expected to continue improving and has the potential to become a top-10 player in the league. However, during his rookie season, he lacked a reliable point guard to feed him the ball. Enter Chris Paul.

Chris Paul's Track Record

Although Chris Paul has never won an NBA championship, his ability to elevate teams is historically significant. His impact is undeniable. For instance, after joining the Rockets in 2017, they immediately posted a franchise-best 65-17 record. Similarly, when Paul joined the Thunder in 2019, he led an underdog team to the playoffs. The most notable example is the Suns. In 2020, Paul took the Suns from playoff absentees to NBA Finals contenders in his first year, and in his second year, he led them to a franchise-best 64-18 record.

Some might argue that Devin Booker was the real leader of the Suns, but Paul's influence is evident. In his first year with the Suns, Paul finished fifth in MVP voting while Booker received no votes. In his second year, Paul was a top-4 MVP candidate until an injury dropped him to ninth. Moreover, the Suns' performance declined noticeably after Paul's departure, highlighting his value.

However, Paul's magic has been waning with age. Last season with the Warriors, he played 58 games, 40 of which were off the bench—the first time in his career he accepted a bench role. He averaged 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game with shooting splits of 44.1% from the field, 37.1% from three, and 82.7% from the free-throw line, resulting in a true shooting percentage of 54.4%. While his scoring and efficiency were not particularly impressive, his playmaking remained elite. He had an assist rate of 41.1%, ranking fourth in the league, and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.17, the highest of his career.

Impact on the Spurs

Despite the Warriors missing the playoffs, Paul cannot be solely blamed. In fact, his presence had a positive impact on the team. When Paul was on the court, the Warriors had a net rating of +2.8 points per 100 possessions compared to -1.8 when he was off. Additionally, the team's assist rate and assist-to-turnover ratio improved with Paul playing.

Paul's arrival in San Antonio is expected to bring positive changes, especially in areas where the Spurs struggled last season—turnovers and three-point shooting. The Spurs averaged 14.6 turnovers per game, ranking third-worst in the league, and had a three-point shooting percentage of 34.7%, ranking 27th. There is significant room for improvement in these areas.

However, it’s important to be realistic. The Spurs only won 22 games last season, and the Western Conference is highly competitive. Making the playoffs in Paul's first year with the team will be a challenge. Moreover, Paul's performance has been declining since his 37th birthday, and at 39, it's uncertain how much he can still contribute.

A New Chapter with Wembanyama

For Paul, joining the Spurs likely means giving up on a championship run next season. But the opportunity to play alongside Wembanyama is enticing. Many point guards would relish the chance to help develop a talent like Wembanyama. While making the top six and securing a direct playoff spot may be difficult, aiming for a play-in spot is not out of the question. The combination of Paul and Wembanyama offers a lot of promise.

This pairing brings together Paul's veteran leadership and playmaking with Wembanyama's extraordinary talent and defensive prowess. Paul’s experience and basketball IQ can help accelerate Wembanyama’s development, potentially making him one of the league's most dominant players sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, Wembanyama provides Paul with a dynamic, young star who can finish plays and protect the rim, complementing Paul's strengths.

The Road Ahead

Chris Paul’s decision to join the Spurs marks the beginning of an exciting new chapter for both him and the franchise. While a championship may not be in the immediate future, Paul's influence can set the foundation for long-term success in San Antonio. The Spurs, with their young core and the addition of a seasoned veteran like Paul, are poised to surprise many in the coming season.

As the season progresses, all eyes will be on the Paul-Wembanyama duo. Their on-court chemistry and ability to elevate the team’s performance will be critical. While the road to the playoffs will be challenging, the potential for growth and development is immense. Spurs fans have much to look forward to as they witness the evolution of a new era in San Antonio basketball.