Keep Dismantling! Last Year They Sold Their 3D Guard, This Year Their 3D Center. What’s the Bucks’ Rebuilding Strategy?

After their 2021 championship win, many speculated whether the Milwaukee Bucks would become the next dynasty in the NBA, akin to the Golden State Warriors. With Giannis Antetokounmpo in his prime, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday at their peaks, and a solid supporting cast including Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Brook Lopez, the Bucks appeared poised for sustained success. Their salary structure was healthy, and their roster balanced. However, rather than embarking on a dynasty, the Bucks have seen a rapid decline from their championship heights. In 2022, they failed to defend their title, exiting in the semifinals. In 2023, they were stunned by the Miami Heat in a first-round upset. In 2024, they were again defeated by a lower-seeded team, this time the young and rising Indiana Pacers. So, what went wrong for the Bucks?

The main issue seems to be a lack of strategic vision and foresight. Despite seeing Middleton’s performance decline, the Bucks chose to part ways with Jrue Holiday instead. Last summer, the Bucks traded Holiday in a three-team deal that ultimately sent him to the Portland Trail Blazers, and then the Boston Celtics. This season, Holiday has once again showcased his elite 3-and-D capabilities, crucial for Boston’s championship aspirations.

In the regular season, Holiday's impact might not have been fully appreciated despite his impressive stats. However, his playoff performances have been a stark reminder of his value. Holiday has the ability to lock down some of the league’s best scorers. In the first round, he stifled Tyler Herro, holding him to below 40% shooting and 33% from beyond the arc. In the next round, he gave Darius Garland and Max Strus fits, with Garland shooting 31.5% and Strus an abysmal 9.1%. In the semifinals, he neutralized Tyrese Haliburton, who managed only 33% from the field. Even in the finals, while he couldn't completely shut down Luka Dončić, he significantly hindered him, limiting his playmaking and causing turnovers.

Holiday’s contributions are not confined to defense. He’s a potent offensive player who can explode for high-efficiency scoring nights. For example, in the Eastern Conference Finals Game 1, Holiday scored 28 points on 62.5% shooting, adding 7 rebounds and 8 assists. In Game 2 of the Finals, he scored 26 points on 78.6% shooting, with 11 rebounds. His overall play was pivotal in the Celtics securing their 18th championship.

Contrast this with the Bucks’ acquisition, Damian Lillard, a top-75 NBA player with a stellar reputation and accolades far surpassing Holiday’s. However, in the context of championship contention, Lillard’s impact has been less significant than Holiday’s. The current Bucks lack the defensive tenacity that was their hallmark during their championship run, and Lillard’s addition hasn’t compensated for Holiday’s departure.

The situation appears even more dire with reports indicating that the Bucks are now looking to trade Brook Lopez. At 36, Lopez remains a vital component of the Bucks’ defense and spacing. Last season, he averaged 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.37 blocks per game, while shooting 36.6% from three. As one of the few 3-and-D centers in the league, Lopez is invaluable. His ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor makes him a coveted asset for any team with championship aspirations.

If the Bucks trade Lopez, their defense will suffer further. Giannis, who thrives with a shot-blocking, floor-spacing center, will face additional challenges without Lopez’s presence. It's perplexing why the Bucks would dismantle a core that was instrumental in their 2021 championship run.

The Decline After the Championship

The Bucks’ descent from their championship peak has been swift. In the 2021-22 season, they were eliminated in the semifinals, unable to defend their title. The following season, they suffered a shocking first-round upset by the Heat, and in 2024, they fell to the young Pacers. The once-dominant Bucks now find themselves struggling to maintain relevance in a competitive Eastern Conference.

A significant factor in this decline has been the management’s decisions regarding the roster. The trade of Jrue Holiday is a prime example. Despite recognizing Middleton’s decline, the Bucks chose to trade away Holiday, arguably their best defensive player and a key offensive contributor.

Holiday’s performance with the Celtics has been a reminder of what the Bucks lost. His defensive prowess, ability to guard multiple positions, and clutch scoring have been instrumental in Boston’s playoff success. Meanwhile, the Bucks’ defense has noticeably declined without him.

The Questionable Trade for Lillard

While Damian Lillard’s addition brought star power and offensive firepower, it didn’t address the Bucks’ most pressing needs. Lillard’s defensive shortcomings have been apparent, and his style of play hasn’t seamlessly integrated with the Bucks’ system. The team’s defense, which was a strength during their championship run, has regressed significantly.

The Potential Loss of Brook Lopez

Now, with Brook Lopez reportedly on the trading block, the Bucks risk losing another crucial piece of their championship puzzle. Lopez’s ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor has been essential for the Bucks’ success. His 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.37 blocks per game, combined with his 36.6% three-point shooting, make him a rare and valuable asset in today’s NBA.

Trading Lopez would further weaken the Bucks’ defense and leave Giannis without a reliable frontcourt partner. This move raises questions about the Bucks’ overall strategy and long-term vision.

The Lack of Strategic Vision

The Bucks’ recent decisions suggest a lack of clear strategic vision. Instead of building on their championship foundation, they appear to be dismantling it piece by piece. The trade of Holiday, the potential loss of Lopez, and the acquisition of Lillard reflect a series of moves that prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability.

The Need for a Clear Rebuilding Strategy

If the Bucks are indeed entering a rebuilding phase, they need a clear and coherent strategy. The current approach of trading away key players without adequate replacements will only lead to further decline. Rebuilding around Giannis requires surrounding him with players who complement his strengths and cover his weaknesses.

Conclusion

The Milwaukee Bucks’ post-championship trajectory has been marked by questionable decisions and a lack of strategic vision. The trade of Jrue Holiday and the potential trade of Brook Lopez highlight a troubling trend of dismantling a once-dominant core. As the Bucks navigate this period of uncertainty, they need to develop a clear rebuilding strategy that leverages Giannis’s prime years and positions the team for sustained success. Without this, the Bucks risk fading into irrelevance, missing the opportunity to capitalize on their championship window.