Is Luka Dončić’s MVP Race Already Over? A Look at His Slump Compared to Kyrie Irving's Hot Start

In a thrilling game that ended in heartbreak for the Dallas Mavericks, they lost 120-122 to the Denver Nuggets. Although the Mavericks fell short of securing the victory, Kyrie Irving put on a show that left fans buzzing. With 43 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, Irving was nearly perfect, shooting 17-for-22 from the field, 6-for-8 from three, and 3-for-3 from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage for the game was an astonishing 92.2%. The second half was a masterpiece, as Irving scored 27 points, with his dazzling display of shots in the fourth quarter nearly willing the Mavericks to victory. He hit tough shots, including contested three-pointers, deep pull-up threes, and fading mid-range jumpers, keeping his team within striking distance.

However, despite Irving's brilliance, the Mavericks still fell short. The reason? Luka Dončić’s performance in the game was underwhelming, especially in the crucial fourth quarter. Dončić, who played 41 minutes, finished with 24 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists, but his shooting was inefficient. He went 9-for-19 from the field, 2-for-8 from three, and 4-for-6 from the line. Worse, his performance in the fourth quarter was lackluster, scoring just 5 points on 2-for-5 shooting. In a critical moment with just one minute left and the Mavericks leading by two points, Dončić missed a deep, contested three-pointer. Earlier, with just three minutes remaining, Dončić fouled Jamal Murray on a key possession, and although the Mavericks challenged the call, it ended up being unsuccessful, giving Murray three free throws.

While some of these mistakes were due to unfortunate circumstances, there were moments where Dončić’s decision-making seemed questionable. After Irving’s back-to-back tough mid-range jumpers, Dončić opted to isolate himself and take a contested, long three-pointer with the game on the line instead of continuing to involve Irving, who had been on fire. This decision raised eyebrows and left fans wondering whether Dončić’s current play is living up to the lofty expectations surrounding him.

Looking at Dončić’s overall season, it’s clear that his performance so far hasn’t quite matched the MVP-caliber standard that many anticipated. After 10 games, Dončić is averaging 28.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game. While those numbers are certainly impressive, they don’t tell the whole story. His shooting efficiency has been a concern. He is shooting just 41.2% from the field, 33.3% from three-point range, and 78.4% from the free-throw line, which gives him a true shooting percentage of only 53.3%.

For comparison, Dončić’s numbers from last season were significantly better. He averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists, with shooting splits of 48.7% from the field, 38.2% from three, and 78.6% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage last season was an impressive 61.7%. Last year, Dončić had what many considered to be his best season, nearly averaging a 34-point triple-double while leading the Mavericks to a return to the NBA Finals for the first time in 13 years. Along the way, he secured his first scoring title, was named to the All-NBA First Team, and finished third in the MVP voting, with his career-high performance propelling him into the conversation as one of the league’s top players.

Despite the Mavericks ultimately falling short to the Boston Celtics in the Finals, Dončić’s historic performance left fans and pundits excited about his potential to win the MVP this year. Heading into the season, Dončić was a heavy favorite to take home his first MVP award, marking his fourth time as the betting favorite. His previous seasons had positioned him as one of the top contenders, with media outlets predicting him to take the next step and win his first MVP title. Yet, as the current season progresses, Dončić’s start has been underwhelming, leaving many to wonder if the MVP dream is slipping away.

The Mavericks, too, have struggled early on. With a 5-5 record to start the season, Dallas is far from the title-contending team many envisioned. If they were in the Eastern Conference, their record might be good enough for a top-four seed, but in the competitive West, they’re barely keeping pace. The team is facing a tough challenge with other Western Conference powerhouses stepping up. With such a strong field of contenders, including MVP frontrunners like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum, Dončić needs to improve quickly if he hopes to re-enter the MVP race.

Digging into Dončić’s advanced stats, the numbers don’t paint a favorable picture:

• His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is 21.1, ranking him 28th in the league.
• His Box Plus-Minus (BPM) is only 3.7, placing him 23rd.
• His Win Shares (WS) stand at just 1.0, 42nd in the league.
• His Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is 0.5, 25th overall.

In comparison, his teammate Kyrie Irving is performing much better across these metrics. Irving’s PER is a stellar 25.2 (6th in the league), his BPM is 7.6 (7th), his WS is 1.8 (4th), and his VORP is 0.9 (9th).

None of this suggests that Dončić is a bad player, of course. He’s still one of the league’s brightest stars, but his current form doesn’t match the MVP-caliber expectations placed on him. It’s also important to note that the season is still young, with only 10 games played. However, if Dončić continues to struggle with his efficiency and decision-making, his chances of winning the MVP award may be dashed, particularly given the level of competition in the West this season.

One thing is for certain: Luka Dončić needs to improve. With his talent, the expectation has always been that he would be an MVP candidate year in and year out. But right now, his performance is falling short of those lofty expectations. As for his future, it remains to be seen if he can recapture his form and elevate his play to the level that made him a favorite heading into the season.

With the season progressing quickly, Dončić needs to find a way to turn things around—before he gets left behind in the MVP race. The window is still open, but it won’t be for long. The MVP race is as competitive as ever, and Dončić has some serious catching up to do.