End of the Road! The Worst-Case Scenario Unfolds: What Happened to China's Women's Basketball Team?

The journey of China's women's basketball team in the Paris Olympics has come to a disappointing end. Despite a promising start and high expectations, the team failed to advance to the quarterfinals, marking one of their worst performances in Olympic history. This turn of events has left fans and analysts alike asking: what went wrong?

A Rollercoaster of Performances

China's women's basketball team had a mixed bag of results in their group stage matches. Their Olympic campaign began with a heartbreaking 89-90 loss to Spain, followed by a disheartening 59-81 defeat against Serbia. However, hopes were revived with a dominant 80-58 victory over Puerto Rico. This win, achieved within 48 hours of their previous match, raised the prospect of advancing to the quarterfinals.

Despite the victory against Puerto Rico, the complex qualification scenario required several favorable outcomes from other matches. The following conditions needed to be met for China to advance:

1. Belgium defeating Japan by a margin of 27 points or less.
2. Japan defeating Belgium by a margin of 37 points or less.
3. France defeating Australia.
4. Australia defeating France, and Canada defeating Nigeria by at least 26 points.

These scenarios appeared challenging, especially given the stakes for Japan and Belgium, who were also vying for advancement. Optimism was high when China won against Puerto Rico, and some commentators even prematurely celebrated China's progression. However, the final outcome was not in China's favor.

The Disappointing Outcome

The match between Japan and Belgium ended with Japan losing to Belgium by exactly 27 points. This result left many questioning whether the game was manipulated, although the general consensus is that Belgium's team showcased their strength, particularly with several critical three-pointers in the closing moments.

With Japan's loss, China's hopes still hinged on the results of Group B. Unfortunately, these did not go as needed: Nigeria triumphed over Canada, and Australia defeated France. Consequently, China fell to the ninth position, which, while technically ninth overall, can be seen as the fourth-worst position, reflecting poorly on their Olympic performance.

Historical Context and Expectations

China's ninth-place finish ties their second-worst Olympic performance (1996 and 2004), only slightly better than their 10th place in the 2016 Rio Olympics. This is a far cry from their goal of reaching the top four, as set by the Chinese Basketball Association before the Olympics.

Adding to the disappointment, FIBA's ranking placed China's women's team second globally, just behind the United States. Of the top four ranked teams, China was the only one that did not make it to the quarterfinals.

Internal Challenges and Decline

The underwhelming performance of China's women's basketball team has sparked introspection and criticism. Fans have voiced frustrations, not only about external factors such as Japan and France's performances, but also about the team's own shortcomings. Key moments that cost them, like unnecessary fouls against Spain and a less-than-decisive victory over Puerto Rico, highlight areas where improvement was needed.

Two years ago, China was the runner-up in the Women's Basketball World Cup, but significant changes have occurred since then. The team's performance has been inconsistent throughout this Olympic cycle, including a poor record in warm-up games, where they won only two out of thirteen matches, losing the last seven consecutively.

Even the victory against Puerto Rico, while a glimmer of hope, was a narrower margin than expected. Historically, China had beaten Puerto Rico by larger margins: 36 points in the 2024 Olympic qualifiers, 35 points in the 2022 Women's Basketball World Cup, and 42 points in the 2021 Olympic group stage.

Player Performance and Team Dynamics

One of the noticeable issues has been the decline in individual player performances. Apart from Li Yueru, who returned from overseas and delivered strong performances, other key players like Li Meng and Han Xu have not lived up to their previous standards. The backcourt has been a persistent problem, with the guards collectively underperforming during the Olympics.

The domestic league's comfort may have contributed to this decline. Like the men's team, the women's team seems to struggle with maintaining high-level competitive form. This issue is evident in the results, reflecting a broader problem within Chinese basketball.

Broader Implications for Chinese Basketball

The disappointment extends beyond the women's five-a-side team. China's women's 3x3 basketball team, which won bronze at the previous Olympics, finished sixth this time. The men's 3x3 team, which had a 2-5 record in the last Olympics, managed only one win and six losses, ending up at the bottom.

This decline is a bitter pill to swallow for Chinese basketball fans. The women's team, once a bright spot, now faces the same downward trend as the men's team. However, there is still hope that this decline can be reversed. The women's team has shown potential and resilience in the past, and with the right adjustments, they can bounce back.

In summary, China's women's basketball team has faced a challenging period, culminating in a disappointing Olympic performance. While external factors played a role, the team's internal issues, declining individual performances, and broader structural problems in Chinese basketball were significant contributors. The path forward will require introspection, strategic changes, and a renewed focus on maintaining high-level competitiveness.