Averaging 5 Points: Is Alex Caruso Worth $81 Million Over Four Years?

The Oklahoma City Thunder made a significant commitment to Alex Caruso, signing the 30-year-old to a four-year, $81 million extension. The deal was announced by renowned insider Shams Charania and confirmed by Caruso’s agent. The Thunder also released an official statement following the announcement.

Caruso’s extension represents the maximum allowable amount he could earn under the NBA’s current extension rules. His yearly salary will escalate as follows: $18.1 million in the first year, $19.6 million in the second, $21 million in the third, and $22.4 million in the final year.

This contract comes as no surprise. Over the summer, Oklahoma City executed a bold trade with the Chicago Bulls, sending Josh Giddey, a player they had spent three seasons developing, in exchange for Caruso, who was on the final year of his contract. This move signaled the Thunder’s intention to secure Caruso long-term, ensuring the asset they traded for wouldn’t be lost in free agency.

Evaluating Caruso's Performance

The pivotal question surrounding this deal is whether Caruso is worth such a sizable investment.

This season, Caruso has played 19 games for the Thunder, all coming off the bench. He is averaging 5.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.9 steals in 20.2 minutes per game. His shooting splits are concerning: 38.5% from the field, 27.0% from beyond the arc, and 77.8% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage sits at 47.8%, a far cry from league average.

For comparison, Caruso had a career year with the Bulls last season. Starting in 57 of 71 games, he posted averages of 10.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.7 steals in 28.7 minutes per game. He shot an efficient 46.8% from the field, 40.8% from three-point range, and 76.0% from the line, with a true shooting percentage of 61.3%.

This dramatic decline in offensive production raises concerns. His three-point shooting has been particularly problematic this season, making just 27.0% of his 3.3 attempts per game. To put that in perspective, among 204 players who have averaged at least three three-point attempts per game (minimum 10 games played), Caruso ranks third-worst.

Advanced metrics further illustrate Caruso's offensive struggles. His offensive box plus-minus (BPM) of -2.8 is the lowest of his career, highlighting his limited impact on that end of the floor.

Defensive Excellence: Caruso’s True Strength

While Caruso’s offensive contributions have diminished, his defensive impact remains elite. He is averaging 1.9 steals per game, ranking fifth in the NBA. However, his defensive value goes far beyond raw statistics.

This season, Caruso is averaging 9.6 contests per game on opponent shots. His presence forces opposing players’ field goal percentages to plummet from 46.0% to 32.4%, a remarkable 13.6% drop. On three-point attempts, his impact is even more pronounced, with opponents’ shooting accuracy dropping from 34.3% to an astonishingly low 16.2%, a decline of 18.1%.

Caruso’s ability to disrupt opposing offenses has been a game-changer for the Thunder. Alongside Isaiah Hartenstein, Caruso has transformed Oklahoma City’s defense into the best in the league. Last season, the Thunder posted a defensive rating of 111.0, which ranked fourth. This season, their defensive rating has improved to 103.0, a league-best mark with a significant gap over the second-ranked Houston Rockets (105.5).

Advanced defensive metrics further highlight Caruso’s value. His defensive BPM stands at +4.5, the highest among all players who have played at least 10 games this season.

The Impact of OKC’s Small-Ball Strategy

Caruso’s offensive decline can partially be attributed to his heavy defensive workload. Oklahoma City employs a small-ball system that relies on speed, intensity, and tactical discipline. This approach demands exceptional focus and energy on the defensive end, often at the expense of offensive efficiency.

Caruso is not the only Thunder player affected by this strategy. Last season, Oklahoma City led the league in three-point shooting at 38.9%. This year, their team percentage has dropped to 35.2%, ranking closer to the middle of the pack.

The effectiveness of this small-ball system in high-stakes situations remains uncertain. The Thunder’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in the in-season tournament finals highlighted the potential vulnerabilities of their lineup. With Giannis Antetokounmpo dominating the interior, Oklahoma City’s undersized roster struggled to contain him. However, the Thunder were missing key contributors like Chet Holmgren in that matchup, suggesting their full-strength lineup could present a stronger challenge.

Is the Contract Justifiable?

From a short-term perspective, Caruso’s extension appears justified. His defensive versatility and ability to execute Oklahoma City’s small-ball scheme make him an invaluable asset. While his offensive limitations are evident, his contributions on defense are irreplaceable.

Additionally, the Thunder operate in a small-market environment, making it imperative to retain talent. The upcoming NBA broadcasting deal is expected to lead to a significant salary cap increase, which could make Caruso’s contract more palatable in the future.

However, the long-term risks cannot be ignored. Caruso is already 30 years old, and his game relies heavily on athleticism, reaction time, and physicality. As he approaches his mid-30s, the possibility of a sharp decline in his defensive abilities looms large. Paying $20 million annually for a defense-first player past his prime could become a financial burden.

Moreover, Oklahoma City faces looming challenges with its young core. Promising players like Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Carson Wallace are all on rookie deals but will require significant extensions in the coming years. Maximizing the team’s window while these players are on affordable contracts will be critical to the Thunder’s championship aspirations.

In the short term, Caruso’s extension ensures that Oklahoma City remains a defensive powerhouse. Whether this investment will pay off in the long run depends on Caruso’s ability to sustain his defensive excellence and the Thunder’s ability to build a balanced roster around their star talent.