77-23! The MVP Race, Has It Already Been Decided?

As the NBA regular season comes to a close, the MVP race appears to have already been decided. ESPN's third simulated MVP vote of the season has left little room for debate. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) and Nikola Jokić once again dominated the top spots, but this time, the results tell a clear story of how the race has unfolded. With 77 first-place votes, Gilgeous-Alexander claimed the top spot with a total score of 931 points. Meanwhile, Jokić, who received the remaining 23 first-place votes, finished second with 769 points. For those who had any doubts, it seems like the MVP trophy is already in SGA's hands.

This simulation, conducted by ESPN and involving 100 journalists and experts, holds considerable weight in the league's MVP discussions. The final MVP winner is determined by media votes, so these simulations provide a reliable indicator of the race's trajectory. ESPN conducts three of these simulated votes each season, and the results of the first two rounds offer some valuable context. In the first simulation, Jokić was the clear front-runner, with 57 first-place votes compared to SGA's 24. However, by the second round, SGA had flipped the script, securing 70 first-place votes while Jokić only earned 30.

Now, with just a handful of regular-season games left, the race seems all but over, with SGA poised to capture the MVP award. His numbers have been extraordinary, and with the Thunder's meteoric rise, it’s hard to imagine anyone else surpassing him in the final stretch. As of today, Gilgeous-Alexander has played in 73 games, averaging 32.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game, with an impressive shooting line of 52.0% from the field, 37.3% from three-point range, and 90.1% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage stands at a remarkable 63.9%.

On the other hand, Jokić has also had an outstanding season. In 65 games, the Denver Nuggets’ star is putting up 29.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 1.8 steals, with shooting splits of 57.5% from the field, 41.6% from deep, and 80.3% from the free-throw line. His true shooting percentage is 66.2%. Statistically, Jokić remains the better player, and his achievement of averaging a triple-double for the season is nothing short of legendary. He’s also the first player in NBA history to rank in the top three for points, rebounds, and assists. Even though SGA has claimed the scoring title this season, it's hard to argue with Jokić's historical significance and overall numbers.

When it comes to advanced metrics, Jokić is again ahead. His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a staggering 32.14, which not only ranks first in the league this season but also places him second all-time, only behind his own PER from the 2021-22 season (32.85). SGA, while impressive in his own right, has a PER of 30.8, which, while excellent, still pales in comparison to Jokić’s historic numbers.

But MVP voting is never just about the numbers. Team success plays a huge role, and this is where SGA has pulled away. The Oklahoma City Thunder, largely led by Gilgeous-Alexander, have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. With a current record of 64-12, they have locked up the top seed in the Western Conference and have even set their sights on the elusive 70-win mark. In contrast, the Nuggets, despite Jokić's brilliance, have a more modest record of 47-30, placing them fourth in the Western Conference. This 17.5-game gap between the Thunder and the Nuggets is one that no amount of statistical dominance can bridge.

Of course, this doesn’t diminish Jokić’s greatness. He remains the best player in the league, with an ability to impact every facet of the game. His vision, passing, rebounding, and scoring ability make him an all-around force, and the Nuggets are a legitimate championship contender as long as he’s on the court. Without him, Denver is merely an average team. The fact remains, however, that MVP is not awarded to the best player in the league; it’s awarded to the best player in a given season, and in this case, SGA’s individual brilliance, coupled with the Thunder’s extraordinary success, gives him the edge.

One of the more underappreciated aspects of SGA’s season is how essential he is to Oklahoma City’s success. When he’s on the floor, the Thunder outscore opponents by an impressive 17.7 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the floor, that number drops significantly to just 3.6 points. While Oklahoma City has a strong roster with a solid supporting cast, it’s clear that SGA is the engine that drives their success. His individual impact, as measured by his On/Off court stats, is one of the most impressive in the entire league. For reference, SGA's On/Off rating is +937, leading the league by a wide margin. The second-highest On/Off rating belongs to teammate Lu Dort, at +561, showcasing just how much of an outlier SGA’s influence is.

In many ways, it’s unfortunate for Jokić that his incredible season is overshadowed by the Thunder’s dominance. This has been one of his best seasons, possibly his career-best, and he himself has acknowledged that this year is the best he’s ever played. There’s no doubt that fatigue from previous MVPs, coupled with the Thunder’s success, has played a role in his being overlooked. Despite his remarkable numbers, the significant gap in team success makes it difficult to justify giving him a third MVP this season.

That being said, Jokić remains one of the most transcendent talents in NBA history. His impact on the game is unparalleled in many ways, and his ability to fill up the box score in nearly every category is something few players in history can replicate. But in this season, the combination of SGA’s scoring prowess, efficiency, and the Thunder’s historical success puts him firmly in the driver’s seat for MVP honors.

For SGA, winning the MVP would cap off a career-defining season. Not only would he secure his first MVP award, but he would also add the scoring title to his list of accomplishments, cementing his place among the NBA’s elite. Achieving such a feat at such a young age would propel him into the conversation of the greatest guards to ever play the game. However, the MVP award is just one piece of the puzzle. For the Thunder, anything less than a trip to the Western Conference Finals would be considered a disappointment. The ultimate test for SGA will come in the postseason, where the stakes will be higher, and the pressure will be intense.

While the regular season MVP may already be all but decided, the real question is whether SGA can continue his incredible form into the playoffs. The Thunder are primed for a deep run, and if SGA can lead them to the promised land, it will solidify his place as one of the NBA’s brightest stars. The MVP race may be over, but the most exciting part of the season—playoff basketball—still lies ahead. For SGA and the Thunder, the true challenge is just beginning.