$345 Million Over 5 Years? Wembanyama’s Injury Could Indirectly Tear the Grizzlies Apart

The NBA landscape was shaken when Victor Wembanyama was ruled out for the season due to blood clot issues. The impact of his absence goes beyond just the San Antonio Spurs' dwindling playoff hopes—it has sent shockwaves throughout the league.

One unexpected consequence? The Memphis Grizzlies may now face a financial dilemma that could force them to break up their core.

Before Wembanyama’s injury, the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) race was essentially over. The rookie sensation was dominating both ends of the floor, and barring a late-season collapse, the award was his to lose. But with him out of the picture, the frontrunner now shifts to Jaren Jackson Jr.

On the surface, this seems like great news for the Grizzlies. However, it might come at a massive cost—literally.

If Jackson wins DPOY or makes an All-NBA team, he will qualify for the designated veteran supermax extension, meaning the Grizzlies could be looking at a five-year, $345 million contract for their star big man.

The real question is: Is Jaren Jackson Jr. worth that price tag? And even if he is, can Memphis afford it without gutting their roster?

Jackson’s Case for the Supermax

First, let’s acknowledge just how good JJJ has been this season.

Through 55 games, he’s averaging:

• 22.8 points
• 6.0 rebounds
• 2.2 assists
• 1.7 blocks & 1.3 steals
• 49.2% FG / 35.4% 3PT / 77.1% FT (with a 59.2% true shooting percentage)

These are career-best offensive numbers, and more impressively, he’s one of only four players in the entire NBA averaging 20+ points, 1+ steal, and 1+ block per game. The other three?

• Victor Wembanyama
• Anthony Davis
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

That’s elite company.

On defense, Jackson remains a monster, capable of guarding inside and out. His impact metrics are undeniable:

• When he’s on the court, the Grizzlies allow just 106.8 points per 100 possessions and outscore opponents by 9.2 points per 100.
• When he’s off, those numbers shift to 113.1 points allowed and a +1.6 net rating.

The drop-off is massive. It’s no wonder he’s a strong DPOY candidate and likely to make an All-NBA team as well.

So, from a performance standpoint, Jackson is clearly worth a max contract.

But is he worth the supermax?

The Supermax Trap: Is JJJ Worth $345M?

Here’s where things get complicated.

The supermax is designed for franchise-altering superstars—the players who single-handedly raise a team’s ceiling and keep them in title contention. Think Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, or even Luka Dončić.

Jackson, while incredibly valuable, doesn’t fit that mold.

For starters, he’s never been in MVP conversations, nor is he the type of player who can be the No. 1 option on a title team. He’s an elite two-way big man, but not the guy who carries an offense every night.

High-level advanced metrics back this up:

• PER: 20.6 (Ranks 23rd in the NBA)
• BPM (Box Plus-Minus): +3.0 (Ranks 37th)

Those are good, not great numbers, especially for someone about to command $69 million per year.

To put this in perspective:

• Luka Dončić didn’t even get a $345M deal—the Mavericks balked at the idea of offering him a supermax extension.
• Ja Morant, JJJ’s own teammate, only got $193M over five years—almost half of what Jackson might get.

Memphis loves Jaren Jackson Jr., but the front office now faces an impossible choice:

1. Pay him the supermax and risk financial inflexibility.
2. Refuse to offer it and risk alienating their franchise cornerstone.

Can the Grizzlies Afford This?

Even if Jackson doesn’t get the supermax, he’s still due for a standard max extension, which will be around $245M over five years.

That’s already a huge commitment—especially when Memphis already has two other massive contracts on the books.

• Ja Morant: 5 years, $193M
• Desmond Bane: 5 years, $197M

Combined with Jackson’s potential $345M deal, that would put the Grizzlies over $700 million in payroll for just three players.

And it’s not like Memphis is a big-market team that can afford a sky-high luxury tax bill year after year.

They’ve already traded away Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia to clear space, but that’s not enough. If Jackson gets the supermax, Memphis might have to offload more key players, potentially breaking up the very core that makes them competitive.

A Domino Effect Around the League

Memphis isn’t the only team feeling the ripple effects of Wembanyama’s injury.

• Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley is now one of the top DPOY candidates. If he wins, his rookie extension will jump from $224M to $269M—a $45M increase that puts additional financial strain on the Cavs.
• San Antonio Spurs: Without Wemby, their already slim playoff hopes are gone, making them likely to go all-in for another high draft pick.

But Memphis remains the most dramatically affected.

Because if Jackson wins DPOY or makes All-NBA, the franchise will be forced into a financial decision that could shape their future for the next half-decade.

So… What Should the Grizzlies Do?

Here’s the harsh reality: Memphis is going to have to make a tough call.

They can’t afford three max contracts, let alone one supermax deal.

If Jackson demands the full $345M, the Grizzlies may have to explore alternative options, such as:

• Negotiating a lower extension (unlikely—Jackson’s agent will push for the max).
• Trading a core piece like Bane to free up cap space (risky and unpopular).
• Letting Jackson walk in free agency (a potential disaster).

None of these are great choices, but that’s the price of success in the NBA.

The Grizzlies’ championship window is now, but if they mismanage this contract situation, it could slam shut before it even truly opens.

For Memphis, the stakes have never been higher.